Thanks Ioan! I was waiting for your piece on this. There is no clarity on what actually happened, but it's hard for me to believe that this man voluntarily surrendered after 50+ years of dodging authorities. And the grandson's quote doesn't convince me either--turning himself in on the chance that he may be able to see Vicentillo? Vicentillo is in witness protection, and furthermore, when Mayo winds up in Florence, they are not even allowed visitors! Guess we'll just have to wait until the facts come out.
No way was Mayo tricked into taking the Trojan Horse to El Paso originally hoping to scout clandestine runways or crops or any damn thing. Guy has been at the head of the table for almost 50 years! That's not a jefe that's an emperor. No cartel fanboy shit, those are straight facts. If you watch the video at El Paso airport everything is smooth. If they sprung a surprise party on him mid air you would see some agitation or fussing on the tarmac. Yet Mayo's body language is extremely smooth and consistent. Furthermore explain how/why the top dog, who is no spring Chicken as illustrated in today's photo, is jumping on a plane to do logistics recon or look at the pretty poppy fields. These guys didn't start doing this stuff last month or last year. They been at it for awhile so they know how important it is to minimize risk. What field or airstrip is worth Mayo's life? Bottom line is this- When the door slams behind Mayo it's over. Just like for everyone. But remember that although the door slammed, he walked in. He decided when he was walking in. They tried forcing him. He wasn't forced. He wasn't chained and wrangled in like some bull. The 3letter agencies tried for 50 years, and they got their endgame. But it was given to them. Mayo said when, not the DEA. That's a loss in the minds of the control freaks, whose character & ideals define the agencies core identity. All the boys are probably happy they got their man. But there's a bunch of bruised egos when they think about Mayo. Guy said ok it's over im coming. Mayo was a shot caller til the end. They chased him for 50 years! That's not a jefe that's an emperor.
So now DEA/FBI/ETC try to tell us we arrested the guys in charge. But it makes no difference. Not tonight, tomorrow, next week/month. Never. You'll be able to get it and get it easily or w/ minimal effort depending upon your hometown.
So if you arrested the guys who are allegedly in charge and nothing changes- who's really in charge???
I'm sure you are familiar with Occums Razor. For those that aren't it basically states that if there's multiple possible solutions to a problem, the simplest one is most often correct. So either Mayo/JGL cut a deal- like everyone does. Or Mayo, guy who was never gotten,got tricked to ride on the Trojan Horse to El Paso over some minor details and next stop is ADX or wherever. This is a plot line Narcos would reject for being unreal in its possibilities to reasonably occur in real life. But because the major American media outlets say it is true, this is how it went down?!?! I know American media has an impeccable reputation 🤔 but there's no way in any universe they tricked Mayo onto the Trojan Horse to El Paso 🐴
Yeah, it makes sense. I veer towards the deal and would need stronger evidence to shift. However, I respect Zeta and they are also calling the sting as the cause.
The whole thing is even more fishy given that there is a presidential election in 100 days and Kamala was charged with overseeing the border. Makes me think the official story we are being told likely fabricated.
I guess only time will tell what really happened. I was first leaning towards MZ cutting a deal with the US and maybe throwing the Mexican government under the bus. Now, I’m started to think he was set up. There has been a few killings in Sinaloa, Eliseo Imperial/Cheyo Ántrax, Raúl Carrasco Lechuga/ El Chore, and El Oso. They were all pretty mid-high ranking lieutenant. There was a few raids from the guarda nacional in CLN as well. Seems like JGL played the middleman then turned on Mayo? Which would make sense since his full-blood brother is locked up. We will see what Mayito Flaco does and if a more aggressive war starts.
I saw the story and figured you’d be by with something. This seems kind of strange. Your point about him still being around at 76 is an important one. Very rare indeed to have that sort of longevity in that business.
I would guess he gets something out of this. I don’t believe the story at all. Why would he care about airfields, etc. Those guys don’t really get involved in the nuts and bolts for the most part. The Justice Dept gets their photo op and some positive publicity which they desperately need. It won’t make any difference in the flow of drugs themselves but that’s how they’ll try to spin it. I’ll be watching for updates on this for sure.
I’m wondered if there are medical issues involved that he couldn’t get taken care of where he was and that factored in somehow. I don’t guess we’ll see how it plays out.
Could be the case, although with his money that shouldn't be a problem. Maybe he was tired.of hiding and of being a drug kingpin at 76. Maybe, he wanted to make a big splash. Maybe, he really can negotiate a sweet deal. Quien sabe.
Thanks for sharing Ioan. Informative, well-written and looks like the end of the "Old Guard." I enjoyed your description of what's replacing El Mayo. Who would have thought. Bravo!
Thanks so much there Kenneth. With your deep law enforcement experience, I'd be fascinated to hear if it looks like a deal or sting to you - although I understand if you are cautious commentating on what the FBI now are saying. All Best friend.
Suspicions translated to laughable. The claims are a public relations gimmick particularly with the absolute incompetence or complicity dealing with the attempted assassination of Trump. Competence is definitely not the word to describe any FBI-Homeland Security OP. Any experience with those clowns would confirm what a shit show it is dealing with the circus of the FBI and Homeland Security.
In regards to your important point about the continuation of fentanyl into the United States, there have been absolutely no discussions with China about any sort of deal about the chemical precursors being transported out of China. All communication with China is stopped except for US pronouncements of new tariffs. How can you threaten a country with tariffs when you do not even have the manufacturing capability to back up the tariff threat. Politically fentanyl trafficking is ignored in the US except to proclaim empty promises and we have nothing to bargain with, with China.
Yeah, playing whack-a-mole on kingpins isn't going to stop fentanyl. And if you read the follow up it looks more likely it was rival Chapitos wanting to take out Mayo. Sad and crazy days.
I believe they would but Mayo just may want to go out as the legend he is. He has been greasing the GOM for 50 years and the US has recently shown an interest in prosecuting corrupt GOM officials. If Mayo cooperates, Mexico’s politicians are going to be laid out. Hey, he may even have some of us on his pay roll.
Dang. Sounds like Joaquin is coming out of this smelling like a rose (or as nice as possible for an indicted narco). Working with the feds for years, turns over Mayo directly to the government in the USA so no extradition fight, and now he'll be getting a sweet deal for himself AND his brother. Played his cards very, very well.
Thank you Iaon - outstanding. Mayo's arrest does zero to either enhance the chances for peace in Mexico or slow the flow of drugs into the US - timing is political for an election trophy
I'm still shocked. I can't believe el mayo himself is captured. In a pretty anti climatic fashion too. I'm guessing the feds struck a deal with Joaquin to give up mayo. Most likely for a reduced sentence? Thankfully mayo's capture happened in my lifetime. He survived 6 Mexican presidential transitions that's just unheard of. And why hasn't almost and shienbaum said anything? Very telling
Thanks Ioan! I was waiting for your piece on this. There is no clarity on what actually happened, but it's hard for me to believe that this man voluntarily surrendered after 50+ years of dodging authorities. And the grandson's quote doesn't convince me either--turning himself in on the chance that he may be able to see Vicentillo? Vicentillo is in witness protection, and furthermore, when Mayo winds up in Florence, they are not even allowed visitors! Guess we'll just have to wait until the facts come out.
Yeah, all explanations raise questions. Will there be clarity? A crazy Mexico-U.S. mystery. More smoke and mirrors in the drug war.
Seems unlikely he decided to surrender at the end of his life
No way was Mayo tricked into taking the Trojan Horse to El Paso originally hoping to scout clandestine runways or crops or any damn thing. Guy has been at the head of the table for almost 50 years! That's not a jefe that's an emperor. No cartel fanboy shit, those are straight facts. If you watch the video at El Paso airport everything is smooth. If they sprung a surprise party on him mid air you would see some agitation or fussing on the tarmac. Yet Mayo's body language is extremely smooth and consistent. Furthermore explain how/why the top dog, who is no spring Chicken as illustrated in today's photo, is jumping on a plane to do logistics recon or look at the pretty poppy fields. These guys didn't start doing this stuff last month or last year. They been at it for awhile so they know how important it is to minimize risk. What field or airstrip is worth Mayo's life? Bottom line is this- When the door slams behind Mayo it's over. Just like for everyone. But remember that although the door slammed, he walked in. He decided when he was walking in. They tried forcing him. He wasn't forced. He wasn't chained and wrangled in like some bull. The 3letter agencies tried for 50 years, and they got their endgame. But it was given to them. Mayo said when, not the DEA. That's a loss in the minds of the control freaks, whose character & ideals define the agencies core identity. All the boys are probably happy they got their man. But there's a bunch of bruised egos when they think about Mayo. Guy said ok it's over im coming. Mayo was a shot caller til the end. They chased him for 50 years! That's not a jefe that's an emperor.
So now DEA/FBI/ETC try to tell us we arrested the guys in charge. But it makes no difference. Not tonight, tomorrow, next week/month. Never. You'll be able to get it and get it easily or w/ minimal effort depending upon your hometown.
So if you arrested the guys who are allegedly in charge and nothing changes- who's really in charge???
Great insights there M. Yeah, what 76 year old really wants to go scouting. "That is not a jefe, that is an emperor." He really was El Mero Mero.
I'm sure you are familiar with Occums Razor. For those that aren't it basically states that if there's multiple possible solutions to a problem, the simplest one is most often correct. So either Mayo/JGL cut a deal- like everyone does. Or Mayo, guy who was never gotten,got tricked to ride on the Trojan Horse to El Paso over some minor details and next stop is ADX or wherever. This is a plot line Narcos would reject for being unreal in its possibilities to reasonably occur in real life. But because the major American media outlets say it is true, this is how it went down?!?! I know American media has an impeccable reputation 🤔 but there's no way in any universe they tricked Mayo onto the Trojan Horse to El Paso 🐴
Yeah, it makes sense. I veer towards the deal and would need stronger evidence to shift. However, I respect Zeta and they are also calling the sting as the cause.
The whole thing is even more fishy given that there is a presidential election in 100 days and Kamala was charged with overseeing the border. Makes me think the official story we are being told likely fabricated.
Elections certainly have a habit of causing some big arrests - and some mysterious ones...
In every country.
I guess only time will tell what really happened. I was first leaning towards MZ cutting a deal with the US and maybe throwing the Mexican government under the bus. Now, I’m started to think he was set up. There has been a few killings in Sinaloa, Eliseo Imperial/Cheyo Ántrax, Raúl Carrasco Lechuga/ El Chore, and El Oso. They were all pretty mid-high ranking lieutenant. There was a few raids from the guarda nacional in CLN as well. Seems like JGL played the middleman then turned on Mayo? Which would make sense since his full-blood brother is locked up. We will see what Mayito Flaco does and if a more aggressive war starts.
Have you heard anything from your sources in CLN?
Yep, new story coming very soon...
Great points here that sound very credible - check out the new story
Outstanding post. Thank you, Ioan.
All best and back at yer Shaunak.
I saw the story and figured you’d be by with something. This seems kind of strange. Your point about him still being around at 76 is an important one. Very rare indeed to have that sort of longevity in that business.
I would guess he gets something out of this. I don’t believe the story at all. Why would he care about airfields, etc. Those guys don’t really get involved in the nuts and bolts for the most part. The Justice Dept gets their photo op and some positive publicity which they desperately need. It won’t make any difference in the flow of drugs themselves but that’s how they’ll try to spin it. I’ll be watching for updates on this for sure.
Thanks there Daniel. Yeah, there are questions looming. If there was a deal, I wonder what terms he could have nailed.
I’m wondered if there are medical issues involved that he couldn’t get taken care of where he was and that factored in somehow. I don’t guess we’ll see how it plays out.
Could be the case, although with his money that shouldn't be a problem. Maybe he was tired.of hiding and of being a drug kingpin at 76. Maybe, he wanted to make a big splash. Maybe, he really can negotiate a sweet deal. Quien sabe.
The only thing he couldn't get before he died was a date with Charlize Theron... and Kamala, said, "Hey, I can hook you up in return for..."
You got the deal! Actually, with new evidence I now have my money on him being kidnapped and it being a rendition, as of the latest story...
I'm the expert - ha ha.
Thanks for sharing Ioan. Informative, well-written and looks like the end of the "Old Guard." I enjoyed your description of what's replacing El Mayo. Who would have thought. Bravo!
Thanks so much there Kenneth. With your deep law enforcement experience, I'd be fascinated to hear if it looks like a deal or sting to you - although I understand if you are cautious commentating on what the FBI now are saying. All Best friend.
I heard the FBI did this all by themselves. Obviously a victory for our feds because they are pretty politically polarized right now.
Hard to believe, huh? They needed some good press.
If the México government really didn't know this was going down, doesn't this amount to an extradition/rendition/kidnapping?
Yes, they are claiming an FBI-Homeland Security Op. A lot of law enforcement people though I am talking to are raising suspicions about it.
Suspicions translated to laughable. The claims are a public relations gimmick particularly with the absolute incompetence or complicity dealing with the attempted assassination of Trump. Competence is definitely not the word to describe any FBI-Homeland Security OP. Any experience with those clowns would confirm what a shit show it is dealing with the circus of the FBI and Homeland Security.
In regards to your important point about the continuation of fentanyl into the United States, there have been absolutely no discussions with China about any sort of deal about the chemical precursors being transported out of China. All communication with China is stopped except for US pronouncements of new tariffs. How can you threaten a country with tariffs when you do not even have the manufacturing capability to back up the tariff threat. Politically fentanyl trafficking is ignored in the US except to proclaim empty promises and we have nothing to bargain with, with China.
Yeah, playing whack-a-mole on kingpins isn't going to stop fentanyl. And if you read the follow up it looks more likely it was rival Chapitos wanting to take out Mayo. Sad and crazy days.
Great piece Ioan! When Mayo starts talking, all the GOM’s complicity will be exposed. This is huge!
Interesting. I thought that, would they use him as a witness against a former Mexican president? I think I will update the piece with that point.
I believe they would but Mayo just may want to go out as the legend he is. He has been greasing the GOM for 50 years and the US has recently shown an interest in prosecuting corrupt GOM officials. If Mayo cooperates, Mexico’s politicians are going to be laid out. Hey, he may even have some of us on his pay roll.
Ha ha. Any info on that is welcome this way.
Fantastic as always.
What a mystery
Thanks and best there Howard Huges
great piece Ioan, give us an account of the era of old 'padrini' traditional kingpins are end with this arrest (or negotiate surrender )
Indeed. Best there Marco.
Dang. Sounds like Joaquin is coming out of this smelling like a rose (or as nice as possible for an indicted narco). Working with the feds for years, turns over Mayo directly to the government in the USA so no extradition fight, and now he'll be getting a sweet deal for himself AND his brother. Played his cards very, very well.
Yeah, Joaquín is an interesting character - some other strange info might come out about him as well!
Can you give us a hint? 😉
Thank you Iaon - outstanding. Mayo's arrest does zero to either enhance the chances for peace in Mexico or slow the flow of drugs into the US - timing is political for an election trophy
Yeah, it works very well for the Biden admin...
Does this just more more fragmentation within the sinoala cartel? And will it just embolden mencho even more?
Probably yes to both of those.
I'm still shocked. I can't believe el mayo himself is captured. In a pretty anti climatic fashion too. I'm guessing the feds struck a deal with Joaquin to give up mayo. Most likely for a reduced sentence? Thankfully mayo's capture happened in my lifetime. He survived 6 Mexican presidential transitions that's just unheard of. And why hasn't almost and shienbaum said anything? Very telling
I don't know if it was anti-climatic. It was kind of original and different!
Things are getting interesting 🤔🤔
That they are. I think the end of 2024 could have some fireworks.
Thinks are moving very quickly at the moment. To many cartels, death's and I should imagine deals being made.
Will El Mencho be next?
If he's not already dead. ?