Yet another incredibly balanced, serious, and sober article on a topic that usually turns into a raging dumpster fire.
Obviously the brave reporting on the drug wars frontlines is to be commended forever, but the respect with which you cover the more nuanced sociopolitical happenings of Mexico is honestly such a welcome change from what we usually get from more traditional media. Thank you for that, Ioan.
I sincerely think that looking at the boring data aggregates, past the talking heads and TikTok analysts, we see a Mexico that ended up a little bit stronger than in 2018. That in itself is a hopeful prospect in my eyes.
I hope that Sheinbaum's administration delivers results, and that the oppositon will push her to do so as well.
Well appreciated and I think this newsletter offers a great format to break out of the regular quick stories we can fall into in the media. Best there friend.
While I think AMLO has some similarities with Trump, I think a more apt comparison is with Modi. Both AMLO and Modi have very high approval ratings of around 70% for both leaders. Both are nationalist firebrands disliked by Western pundits. Both have garnered their popularity through economic handouts to the poor. Both are social conservatives who say they speak for the masses. Both govern large countries with diverse populations along the Tropics. I think they differ more in aesthetics if anything, Modi's populism cloaked in religious nationalism while AMLO's in leftist nationalism.
That is a very interesting comparison Paavan. Love this line - "Modi's populism cloaked in religious nationalism while AMLO's in leftist nationalism." Do you think Modi is more repressive perhaps? Also, is Modi staying in power much longer, I guess because of the different political system. Best there.
I think it's fair to call Modi more repressive than AMLO but that's more to do with the Indian Republic's history. Modi's authoritarianism is not a break from the norm in Indian politics, state repression is the norm in Indian statecraft due it's history of combating separatism e.g. Punjab (Indira Gandhi attacked the Sikh holy site the Golden Temple), Mizoram (Indira Gandhi launched air strikes on them) etc. While Mexico has a history of separatism, it was never as clearly marked out as India's linguistic divisions, so Mexico never needed to respond as harshly.
Modi's got at least another 5 years, I think Modi wins the 2029 election though it's a close call as this year he just lost his majority as he himself is alot more popular than his party. Modi would be more suited to a presidential system like AMLO has. It actually really puzzles me why AMLO chose not to change the reelection rules...
Fascinating Paavan. Yes, Mexico, despite all the problems doesn't have a real issue of different ethnic groups wanting to separate. I think AMLO really believes in the Mexican system and looks to heroes of the Mexican Revolution that established it.
Yeah, I think that's another similarity with Modi. Both AMLO and Modi talk of their countries as civilisations with histories to be proud of. Both leaders speak in grand civilisationary terms, AMLO wants a "fourth transformation" for Mexico and Modi wants a "Ram Rajya" (Kingdom of God) for India.
I am in a long-term PAN stronghold in Guanajuato. No-one, I have talked with, expects much to change with Doctora Claudia. They didn't seem to like AMLO much either, which still surprises me, after 6 years! It seems a little early to declare a Morena dynasty after one sexenio, no?
This is a great piece. And balanced as you promised.
Obviously, I would personally prefer you to criticize his major mistakes a little harder but that would be the wrong debate.
I think the right debate has at least two axes. The first is that he dismantled rather than built the institutions that would enable Mexico to eventually escape the middle income trap and have more success fighting corruption and crime.
The second is the personal and political corruption he oversaw (at arm's length mostly). Personally, he rarely had a full time job but always had plenty of money (he didn't ride in Tsurus in his own time), and institutionally he has safeguarded his own immunity by taking down the legal system and handing it over to the pueblo.
Pobre Mexico....but congratulations on the piece, I really enjoyed it apart from the usual stomach pains I get when reading about AMLO.
Thanks there David. I think Trump's launching of his presidency walloped Mexico fairly hard with both the "they are rapists" and the "Mexico will pay for the wall" - and at the beginning people in Mexico were very anti Trump. However, overtime, they saw things didn't change that much and mellowed and the AMLO-Trump relationship changed the most nationalist base. The Mexican-American community is different, and as you point out there is now a certain pro-Trump base in border areas. All best there friend.
I seem to recall seeing a YouTube or some other video clip where someone who claimed to be a coyote said they loved Trump because they were able to charge more.
TBH, at times when my Mexican friends were complaining about “el pinche payaso”, it was 50/50 on whether or not they were referring to Trump or AMLO.
I feel sorry that the Mexican people will eventually have to clean up after AMLO’s white elephants. 😢
Trump was making himself almost a self-caricature with his wall and anti-Mexican nonsense, while welcoming seasonal workers that the US needed. I live in a state that supplies many of them, so people did see through his bluster. In 2024, I ask US Americans who the hell I should vote for, and hear no reply.
You live in a state that supplies seasonal workers but you ask who should you vote for ? You claim people saw through the bluster, what did they think the bulster was and what did they see ?
Ha, maybe a translation issue! I live in a Mexican state, as a US citizen, born in England. I asked US Americans who I should vote for [in the US election]. I can't vote democrat, though I have in the past. I plan to vote third party or for Trump. I want the flow of money out of the US to stop, to Ukraine and Israel but I am not confident Trump can achieve that.
AMLO would often seem to speak off the cuff, sometimes reacting to a question in anger, so Mexican people understood when Trump seemed to do similar [condemning Mexican people, fixating on MS13, shining light inside the body etc].
The money doesn’t go out of the US. It goes to US companies and their goods/services are what leave the nation (or replenish stocks of the old stuff given away).
AMLO was the epitome of a drunk Mexican: opinionated, outspoken, no plans, does it as he feels, romanticizes his friends, trash talks everybody else, socially conservative but doesn’t care much for what other people do, has no f*cking clue what economy means, hates the Americans, but his kid works there anyways, wishes we were Germany (or Denmark), likes the Cubans, hates rules, has a good sense of humor, except when it’s about him.
Now comes the cleanup after the fiesta. We actually need public policy to get done. Institutions to modernize. An economy to liberalize. The question is, will Sheinbaum keep the party going, or will she have the ovarios to actually get shit done?
Great read. I believe the cartel is a near impossible task to take without the help of USA. I am reminded of the marine who died while killing a head of a cartel. How they retaliated against his family killing 3 members should be a wake up call to people who are quick to criticize if those in power do not want to get mixed up in a war without proper help from USA.
Yes, the killing of the marine's family was one of the worst attrocities ever and so cold blooded it really spreads fear. I think to defeat such evil you have to start off with an actual strategy. It is a problem these are gunmen coming from within the society in Mexici rather than an external enemy. Great to have your voice here friend.
Fantastic piece. You present a nuanced picture. The popularity he has now is something that maybe only someone like Reagan left with. He certainly had his warts too.
Interesting comparison to the Trump phenomenon. That definitely has two distinct sides with no middle ground. Did AMLO sell sneakers and trading cards? He missed an opportunity.
Out of your whole time in mexico who would you say was a good president? Fox, calderon, pena nieto, or amlo? I feel like they were all failures apart from Maybe fox
I think none of them were total success stories. Fox arrived at a great time and window of opportunity and was mediocre. AMLO was the most politically successful but gave a much more mixed legacy as I write. I personally dislike Pena Nieto the most.
Fox was good only because he replaced one party rule for so long and had a fresh start of the new millennium but was ultimately average. And he was pretty tall for a Mexican lol
I was happy when amlo was elected because I thought he would bring change. But now I really dislike him. He didn't do anything on security just attacked the united states in our strategy with the drug war. And he rarely ever condemned maduro or even diaz from cuba. He's just slightly better than those communist leaders. Now I'm not looking forward to shainbaum because of him. And I wonder how would her relationship look with a Harris or trump presidency. Since she considers her self a feminist I'm guessing she's gonna hate trump for the kind of man he is
I totally agree, dear chairo foreing journalist! Much remains to be seen (I'd really like to live in the country Claudia described when assuming presidency.)
Do you think the reason why brits became such explorers was because the uk itself was invaded many times in history? And as a result sort of inherented that colonial gene?
It's interesting that latin America has always been under the American sphere of influence dating back to our manroe doctrine. The uk has rarely had much influence in this region. Apart from the Falklands and the carribean.
AMLO can certainly be described as a genuine populist compared to the questionable commitment and self serving brand of Trump's populism. I think a better comparison would AMLO to America's greatest populist, Huey P Long, the former governor of Louisiana during the 1930's.
Long was a very pugnacious individual, never to shy away from any battle or insult and not afraid to physically express his emotions and ideals. His motto for every Louisianian, rich or poor, was "Every man a king". He travelled throughout the state including every poor town and put forth his plans. He promised better jobs and pay, free textbooks for all children black or white, better roads to bring your crops to market, taxing the rich and the corporations who ignored the plight of the poor and working class, repeal the poll tax to register to vote and many other extremely populist proposals. Through bribery, firings of opposition politicians, physical threats and economic threats, bullying legislators on the floor of the state house in person, resulted in many of his proposals being instituted. He paved thousands of miles of roads, built hospitals in rural areas where there were none, repealed the poll tax, provided free textbooks, taught 175,000 black and white adults to read and attacked the rich for their neglect. Long sent shock waves through the America suffering from the Depression, especially when he became a US Senator in 1932. President Roosevelt's administration understood the real challenge to their power was Huey P Long. Long was assassinated in 1935.
AMLO's connection to the poor and working class was certainly as authentic as Huey P Long's but globalization has made populism politics very difficult. It is attacked internationally and seduced into subservience by global funding efforts like the IMF. And of course, the United States has an extreme distaste for even the word being mentioned. The history of US involvement in other countries is to obliterate the political and economic expression of independence and populism. AMLO's anti-globalism created domestic and international enemies trying to discredit his own independent aims for Mexico. The intense pressure from the United States to purchase genetically modified corn from US farmers and the United States cavalier public pronouncements about invading Mexico to crush the cartels prompted AMLO to declare that Mexico is not a US colony. The claims about narcos funding AMLO's election smell of the United States attempt to discredit the legacy of AMLO.
The failures of AMLO to completely achieve his populist dream maybe because of his natural easy going personality and personal enjoyments. He certainly lacked the extreme aggressive nature of Huey P Long and lacked the passion and precision of Nayib Bukele who because of being a former member of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, understood direct action and how to act decisively. Bukele tried to enact his own version of hugs, not bullets but was betrayed by the gangs in El Salvador. But AMLO has left behind a framework that could be expanded in Mexico if one is truly able and willing to implement it.
Yet another incredibly balanced, serious, and sober article on a topic that usually turns into a raging dumpster fire.
Obviously the brave reporting on the drug wars frontlines is to be commended forever, but the respect with which you cover the more nuanced sociopolitical happenings of Mexico is honestly such a welcome change from what we usually get from more traditional media. Thank you for that, Ioan.
I sincerely think that looking at the boring data aggregates, past the talking heads and TikTok analysts, we see a Mexico that ended up a little bit stronger than in 2018. That in itself is a hopeful prospect in my eyes.
I hope that Sheinbaum's administration delivers results, and that the oppositon will push her to do so as well.
Cheers and good day, everybody.
Well appreciated and I think this newsletter offers a great format to break out of the regular quick stories we can fall into in the media. Best there friend.
While I think AMLO has some similarities with Trump, I think a more apt comparison is with Modi. Both AMLO and Modi have very high approval ratings of around 70% for both leaders. Both are nationalist firebrands disliked by Western pundits. Both have garnered their popularity through economic handouts to the poor. Both are social conservatives who say they speak for the masses. Both govern large countries with diverse populations along the Tropics. I think they differ more in aesthetics if anything, Modi's populism cloaked in religious nationalism while AMLO's in leftist nationalism.
That is a very interesting comparison Paavan. Love this line - "Modi's populism cloaked in religious nationalism while AMLO's in leftist nationalism." Do you think Modi is more repressive perhaps? Also, is Modi staying in power much longer, I guess because of the different political system. Best there.
I think it's fair to call Modi more repressive than AMLO but that's more to do with the Indian Republic's history. Modi's authoritarianism is not a break from the norm in Indian politics, state repression is the norm in Indian statecraft due it's history of combating separatism e.g. Punjab (Indira Gandhi attacked the Sikh holy site the Golden Temple), Mizoram (Indira Gandhi launched air strikes on them) etc. While Mexico has a history of separatism, it was never as clearly marked out as India's linguistic divisions, so Mexico never needed to respond as harshly.
Modi's got at least another 5 years, I think Modi wins the 2029 election though it's a close call as this year he just lost his majority as he himself is alot more popular than his party. Modi would be more suited to a presidential system like AMLO has. It actually really puzzles me why AMLO chose not to change the reelection rules...
Fascinating Paavan. Yes, Mexico, despite all the problems doesn't have a real issue of different ethnic groups wanting to separate. I think AMLO really believes in the Mexican system and looks to heroes of the Mexican Revolution that established it.
Yeah, I think that's another similarity with Modi. Both AMLO and Modi talk of their countries as civilisations with histories to be proud of. Both leaders speak in grand civilisationary terms, AMLO wants a "fourth transformation" for Mexico and Modi wants a "Ram Rajya" (Kingdom of God) for India.
Definitely, and wow Ram Rajya sounds even bigger than the 4T
I am in a long-term PAN stronghold in Guanajuato. No-one, I have talked with, expects much to change with Doctora Claudia. They didn't seem to like AMLO much either, which still surprises me, after 6 years! It seems a little early to declare a Morena dynasty after one sexenio, no?
Yes, I agree and very well put that it's too early to declare a dynasty after a single sexenio
This is a great piece. And balanced as you promised.
Obviously, I would personally prefer you to criticize his major mistakes a little harder but that would be the wrong debate.
I think the right debate has at least two axes. The first is that he dismantled rather than built the institutions that would enable Mexico to eventually escape the middle income trap and have more success fighting corruption and crime.
The second is the personal and political corruption he oversaw (at arm's length mostly). Personally, he rarely had a full time job but always had plenty of money (he didn't ride in Tsurus in his own time), and institutionally he has safeguarded his own immunity by taking down the legal system and handing it over to the pueblo.
Pobre Mexico....but congratulations on the piece, I really enjoyed it apart from the usual stomach pains I get when reading about AMLO.
Well appreciated there John. Yeah, it was getting on paper thoughts I had had in my mind for a few years. Best there.
Most trump supporters dont say it in public so how many supporters are overlooked is unknown. We trump supporters are treated poorly.
Everybody is welcome to raise their voice here. Best there Justin.
My willful ignorance of Mexico's political landscape has been upgraded to novice, thank you.
Being a Trump supporter, I have to ask, do you feel the narrative that Trump derided Mexican people was unfairly accepted by the Mexican population?
My take, he was always talking about Mexican criminals not the Mexican people.
If Mexican Americans once accepted that narrative, they don't seem to still accept it.
Thx again.
Thanks there David. I think Trump's launching of his presidency walloped Mexico fairly hard with both the "they are rapists" and the "Mexico will pay for the wall" - and at the beginning people in Mexico were very anti Trump. However, overtime, they saw things didn't change that much and mellowed and the AMLO-Trump relationship changed the most nationalist base. The Mexican-American community is different, and as you point out there is now a certain pro-Trump base in border areas. All best there friend.
Your right we chicanos actually like trump not all of us but their is a sizable trump supporting community with us
I seem to recall seeing a YouTube or some other video clip where someone who claimed to be a coyote said they loved Trump because they were able to charge more.
TBH, at times when my Mexican friends were complaining about “el pinche payaso”, it was 50/50 on whether or not they were referring to Trump or AMLO.
I feel sorry that the Mexican people will eventually have to clean up after AMLO’s white elephants. 😢
Trump was making himself almost a self-caricature with his wall and anti-Mexican nonsense, while welcoming seasonal workers that the US needed. I live in a state that supplies many of them, so people did see through his bluster. In 2024, I ask US Americans who the hell I should vote for, and hear no reply.
I'm sorry, but you are not making sense to me.
You live in a state that supplies seasonal workers but you ask who should you vote for ? You claim people saw through the bluster, what did they think the bulster was and what did they see ?
With respect.
It may, just be a translation situation.
Ha, maybe a translation issue! I live in a Mexican state, as a US citizen, born in England. I asked US Americans who I should vote for [in the US election]. I can't vote democrat, though I have in the past. I plan to vote third party or for Trump. I want the flow of money out of the US to stop, to Ukraine and Israel but I am not confident Trump can achieve that.
AMLO would often seem to speak off the cuff, sometimes reacting to a question in anger, so Mexican people understood when Trump seemed to do similar [condemning Mexican people, fixating on MS13, shining light inside the body etc].
Yes The Conservatives hype the criminal activity while the liberals downplay and enable.
Trump may not stop the money flowing but I believe he can stop the blood flowing.
Vote Orange it's the new Purple
The money doesn’t go out of the US. It goes to US companies and their goods/services are what leave the nation (or replenish stocks of the old stuff given away).
Excellent piece, as always.
AMLO was the epitome of a drunk Mexican: opinionated, outspoken, no plans, does it as he feels, romanticizes his friends, trash talks everybody else, socially conservative but doesn’t care much for what other people do, has no f*cking clue what economy means, hates the Americans, but his kid works there anyways, wishes we were Germany (or Denmark), likes the Cubans, hates rules, has a good sense of humor, except when it’s about him.
Now comes the cleanup after the fiesta. We actually need public policy to get done. Institutions to modernize. An economy to liberalize. The question is, will Sheinbaum keep the party going, or will she have the ovarios to actually get shit done?
Appreciated and best there Diego. On Sheinbaum, it is a big, let's see!
Great read. I believe the cartel is a near impossible task to take without the help of USA. I am reminded of the marine who died while killing a head of a cartel. How they retaliated against his family killing 3 members should be a wake up call to people who are quick to criticize if those in power do not want to get mixed up in a war without proper help from USA.
Yes, the killing of the marine's family was one of the worst attrocities ever and so cold blooded it really spreads fear. I think to defeat such evil you have to start off with an actual strategy. It is a problem these are gunmen coming from within the society in Mexici rather than an external enemy. Great to have your voice here friend.
Thanks man. Solid read and backgrounder. Super helpful.
Well appreciated Ben, and and back at yer.
Fantastic piece. You present a nuanced picture. The popularity he has now is something that maybe only someone like Reagan left with. He certainly had his warts too.
Interesting comparison to the Trump phenomenon. That definitely has two distinct sides with no middle ground. Did AMLO sell sneakers and trading cards? He missed an opportunity.
Thanks for another fact filled informative piece.
Appreciated Daniel. Great thought on AMLO selling sneakers. Hasn't happened yet, but in the future, quien sabe...
The Pueblo sneaker. A higher price if autographed.
Adidas "Pueblo" and Nike "Chachalaca" - I can see it now.
Out of your whole time in mexico who would you say was a good president? Fox, calderon, pena nieto, or amlo? I feel like they were all failures apart from Maybe fox
I think none of them were total success stories. Fox arrived at a great time and window of opportunity and was mediocre. AMLO was the most politically successful but gave a much more mixed legacy as I write. I personally dislike Pena Nieto the most.
Fox was good only because he replaced one party rule for so long and had a fresh start of the new millennium but was ultimately average. And he was pretty tall for a Mexican lol
I interviewed him twice. He was very friendly and likeable on a personal level.
Remember when he had that personal dispute with fidel castro in the early 2000s?
"Comes y tú vas" or something was the famous line...
I was happy when amlo was elected because I thought he would bring change. But now I really dislike him. He didn't do anything on security just attacked the united states in our strategy with the drug war. And he rarely ever condemned maduro or even diaz from cuba. He's just slightly better than those communist leaders. Now I'm not looking forward to shainbaum because of him. And I wonder how would her relationship look with a Harris or trump presidency. Since she considers her self a feminist I'm guessing she's gonna hate trump for the kind of man he is
I totally agree, dear chairo foreing journalist! Much remains to be seen (I'd really like to live in the country Claudia described when assuming presidency.)
Ha ha. Abrazo Carlos. From the chairo gringo británico intervencionista...
Didn't your ancestors claim Honduras as part of British Honduras at one point? Jeez britbongers were everywhere
We ran until like 82 and still have soldiers there. It was pirates who took it and then gave it to the crown.
1982 really??!!!
Just looked it up - it got independence in September 81. Belize is a great fun country by the way.
Do you think the reason why brits became such explorers was because the uk itself was invaded many times in history? And as a result sort of inherented that colonial gene?
Even as we were fighting the Russians for influence in the cold war the uk still had some influence in the region you britnongers lol
It's interesting that latin America has always been under the American sphere of influence dating back to our manroe doctrine. The uk has rarely had much influence in this region. Apart from the Falklands and the carribean.
Yeah ioan your such a gringo Britanico who is just colonizing Mexico LMAO
AMLO can certainly be described as a genuine populist compared to the questionable commitment and self serving brand of Trump's populism. I think a better comparison would AMLO to America's greatest populist, Huey P Long, the former governor of Louisiana during the 1930's.
Long was a very pugnacious individual, never to shy away from any battle or insult and not afraid to physically express his emotions and ideals. His motto for every Louisianian, rich or poor, was "Every man a king". He travelled throughout the state including every poor town and put forth his plans. He promised better jobs and pay, free textbooks for all children black or white, better roads to bring your crops to market, taxing the rich and the corporations who ignored the plight of the poor and working class, repeal the poll tax to register to vote and many other extremely populist proposals. Through bribery, firings of opposition politicians, physical threats and economic threats, bullying legislators on the floor of the state house in person, resulted in many of his proposals being instituted. He paved thousands of miles of roads, built hospitals in rural areas where there were none, repealed the poll tax, provided free textbooks, taught 175,000 black and white adults to read and attacked the rich for their neglect. Long sent shock waves through the America suffering from the Depression, especially when he became a US Senator in 1932. President Roosevelt's administration understood the real challenge to their power was Huey P Long. Long was assassinated in 1935.
AMLO's connection to the poor and working class was certainly as authentic as Huey P Long's but globalization has made populism politics very difficult. It is attacked internationally and seduced into subservience by global funding efforts like the IMF. And of course, the United States has an extreme distaste for even the word being mentioned. The history of US involvement in other countries is to obliterate the political and economic expression of independence and populism. AMLO's anti-globalism created domestic and international enemies trying to discredit his own independent aims for Mexico. The intense pressure from the United States to purchase genetically modified corn from US farmers and the United States cavalier public pronouncements about invading Mexico to crush the cartels prompted AMLO to declare that Mexico is not a US colony. The claims about narcos funding AMLO's election smell of the United States attempt to discredit the legacy of AMLO.
The failures of AMLO to completely achieve his populist dream maybe because of his natural easy going personality and personal enjoyments. He certainly lacked the extreme aggressive nature of Huey P Long and lacked the passion and precision of Nayib Bukele who because of being a former member of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, understood direct action and how to act decisively. Bukele tried to enact his own version of hugs, not bullets but was betrayed by the gangs in El Salvador. But AMLO has left behind a framework that could be expanded in Mexico if one is truly able and willing to implement it.
Yeah, I think I saw a movie on Huey P Long and I was thinking it reminded me of AMLO somewhat.