I live in a huge enclave of gringos who came here in retirement. Many, if not most, are blindly and blissfully unaware of their personal vulnerability to the cartel that is the shadow government, shadow business and shadow property development in many locations here. The cartel owns outright several elected officials in positions of civic power. The gringos' reaction to a couple corpses found here, some headless bodies found there, news of desaparecidos in this town or that is, "Don't get involved with drugs and you'll be perfectly safe." Just say no, in other words: Nancy would be proud.
Here's the reality, eliding the details of goings-on at dealers and local bosses levels:
1. The biggest municipality here is the birthplace and hometown of the cartel's founder and boss.
2. Because of the area's geography, a single, two-lane thoroughfare, always jammed with (mostly gringo) traffic, is the *only*, repeat ONLY means of accessing the two egress points (some 40 miles apart) leading to major arteries for travel out of the area. Both of these exit points are controlled by the cartel. Even Santa Anna wouldn't fail to see the overwhelming strategic advantage here.
3. There are numerous other assets and stratagems available to the Bad Guys in Black Hats here. Suffice to say that in the event of war or any lesser hostility engaged in by the United States, there would be unparalleled, unimaginable slaughter here. Shut the f___ up, Senator.
Thanks for the comment there Kathleen - This is a very interesting portrait of a "gringo" enclave in Mexico in the times of the great drug war that is worthy of an essay in itself. All best there and please keep in touch.
Absolutely, you need to be careful on exactly what you say and how you frame certain things. But I think this is a fascinating subject matter and I would certainly be interested to read it. Best.
Sending US advisors anywhere the results are always the same. They never leave. To me a lot of this from this side is to gloss over certain realities. If there wasn’t the demand there wouldn’t be these problems caused by the suppliers. It’s always been that way. The products just change.
Yes, thanks Daniel. That is definitely a big point about how these interventions whether in Vietnam or Afghanistan can just keep growing. Once they start, they have a force of their own. Best there.
Yeah, it certainly is. And it's amazing how much is not followed. I discovered the case of a shone shine guy in Chiapas who suddenly appeared with four hotels and two gas stations - the word is he was washing money of El Chapo. (More of that in a story). Best David.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw is a war mongering fool and an absolute tool of the military establishment including the private defense contractors and the intelligence community. Of course Crenshaw is not in favor of declaring the cartels as a terrorist organization. That declaration would eliminate the drug war gravy train that so many US companies are involved with including exclusive sales and contracts with the Mexican government of vehicles and militarized vehicles, weapons especially military grade weapons, police clothing gear and airplanes. Crenshaw would not jeopardize the support of his military campaign donors. But yeah bring on the US troops which would be another financial bonanza to the military industrial establishment who are already overflowing with money and future contracts with the US actions in the Ukraine and Israel. Crenshaw has never criticized those actions and has never criticized our continued presence in Syria and Africa and at the same time promoting possible future military conflict with China, Iran and Russia. The term neocon just drips all over Crenshaw.
If you are truly concerned about the fentanyl deaths in the United States, why not propose actions in the United States to attack this problem. He never mentioned in the interview attempts to destroy the financial laundering of drug money in the United States. He never proposed troop assistance to US law enforcement to battle the cartel street control in the United States which is not hard to find. He never proposed Congressional hearings on the continued role of the CIA in international drug dealings and the lack of FBI enforcement in the United States. He is truly the salesman for the war for profit movement in the United States which is truly destroying this country. If you are interested in the idea of social work for drug addicts, how in the hell can that be financed when billions of dollars is wasted on absurd military adventures without any real benefit to United States citizens.
The United States is not interested in helping Mexico with this terrible scourge of violence. This country is only interested in profiting from this violence. What fool thinks that the US military could provide any essential benefit to Mexico's struggles against the cartels. The record of corruption and uselessness by the US military in the past 65 years should provide you with a true record of failure and gross strategic misunderstanding of the political actions by the military.
The United States will never even admit that they are the reason for the rise of the cartels because we provide the largest customer base for cartels. Without America's junkies, cartels would starve.
"Without America's junkies, cartels would starve" - That is a fine phrase. A big question I am wondering is why really the United States has such high rates of drug use, and if it actually can be reduced, or if that should be seen as a clear objective. All best there Tom.
Drug use and I include alcohol abuse is truly a cultural problem. From the promotion of alcohol as a good drug alternative to anything else and the promotion now of weed as a cure all, creates this whole acceptance of drug use. We are an industrialized country that has the fewest days of paid vacation and there is a tremendous lack of self worth among retirees that points to a culture that does not know what to do with leisure time. We work too hard but do not know how to play hard responsibly. We are also bombarded since childhood that there is always a pharmaceutical solution to physical and mental pain or even tiredness. A more natural form of healthcare could definitely change the future. My grandson once ask me why do not drink and I told him drinking is far too expensive to see all that money spent on drinking pissing down a toilet.
For the present attacks on drug use will be brutal by attacking supply and distribution in a way which could be be very similar to what China did but with a lot of care and assistance for drug users. I do not know if my country has reached this point and obviously they have not if the sentiments of Crenshaw are in the majority.
Yes, I think for foreign visitors to America, the way that commercial drugs are advertised always grabs attention and is part of of America's "exceptionalism." Drinking is an interesting one as it is big in America but even bigger in some European and especially Eastern European countries. "A more natural form of healthcare could definitely change the future" - this one certainly seems an important one. Let's see if we have touched bottom yet or there is even worse to go...
American idolization of Navy Seals has reached a fever pitch. Just because this ambitious Congressman was a SEAL, doesn’t mean he is an expert in anything other then his own self promotion.
It’s telling, this REPUBLICAN, avoids the question of how the cartels are Armed by US gun manufacturers. He also clearly doesn’t know Cartel history and know training has been done before, that went on to produce The ZETAS.
I have complete confidence and admiration of Mexican Marines.
My solutions would be for ALMO to offer less prosecutions for cartels that forbid FENTANYL and cartels that reduce violence.
The US should reward Mexico with Ukraine level financial assistance for elimination of Fentanyl coming across and managing migrants on the MEXICAN side of the border.
Thanks for the support and insight as always Bobby X. Yes, one of the big fronts of the battle I think is social work in Mexico to stop the next generation of cartel sicarios being recruited. Another is seeing how, if it is possible, to reduce the size of the blackmarket in drugs. These are very tough tasks though friend. All best to you.
Bourgogne is right that it would be a blank check to some pretty vicious elements within the US military and intelligence communities, as well as their friends in the industrial complex.
Crenshaw is a bloviating fool, as usual; trying to spin what his leash-holders, Trump and through him, his owners, baldly state to their ravening cult.
Mexico already has cops on top of cops on top of cops on top of cops; military and otherwise. Clearly force isn't the answer to this situation.
Thanks there Shaggy as always. Yes, I think there is no quick military fix to this. On the flip side, I think it is right that this level of drug overdoses should be seen as a very serious problem - and the rise of paramilitary organized crime in Mexico is a serious issue that has to be considered. I am not sure what all the solutions are, but am sure they are hard and long term. All best there friend.
That is an interesting (and scary) idea and one I hadn't thought of before. One thing is that cartels are generally careful in the United States as they don't want to bring unwanted attention that threatens their flow of billions of dollars. However, in the future who knows? Same shit, different terrorism. Best there friend.
Dec 17, 2023·edited Dec 17, 2023Liked by Ioan Grillo
Yeah, the cartels have infiltrated the USA more than any opposition in any other country. I'm surprised people aren't using it as a reason to oppose the crazy ideas of tequila-thirsty U.S. politicians. It should be scary to be a quiet American (for this, Israel etc. because there will always be blowback). May you be well too. Live longer!
Yeah, I don't think the depth of cartel infiltration in the U.S. has sunk in yet, or the consequences played out. But that could well come. I'll check out the link there.
One near-certain result of a more aggressive Mexico-US paramilitary effort to suppress "the cartels" is liable to be increased immigration pressure across the border into the US. On a border where CBP agents have already tabulated 2.5 million stops in the year 2023, with only a limited impact on the waves of people crossing the border into the US.
From what I'm noticing, much of the current situation is a long-term indirect result of population increase between 1070 and 2020, with the overflow at first primarily regional (Mexico and Central America) and now global, from everywhere. But most of the stimulus for immigration to the US from Mexico was initially the result of the increased power of the organized crime networks in the countryside, which both recruited the local residents as drug mules, or encouraged them to leave in droves as refugees (whether officially defined as refugees or not.) Who would leave their home in a mountain paradise like Michoacan if it hadn't been corrupted and dominated by criminal gangs? The US used to have a thriving bracero program with those Mexican states; seasonal workers would migrate north during harvest seasons, and then return to their villages and homesteads. I don't know what's become of the bracero program. But it had to have been destabilized as a result of the takeover of those rural areas by the criminal "cartel" gangs in the first decade of the 21st century, and the parallel state that has become entrenched since then.
If the region becomes the site of an intensified counterinsurgency conflict, more of the residents of those battlegrounds will flee, many of them heading north into the US. I don't think that even the most professional, uncorrupted, and finely targeted effort against the cartel leaders and their military bodyguard can be done without increasing the disruptions in the conflict zones and encouraging population evacuation and relocation. Furthermore, military incursions aren't a real solution. Real solutions will require dismantling the Prohibition-enabled criminal monopoly over supply with controlled prescription maintenance for addicts, long-term inpatient rehabilitation, and (possibly) regulated legalization of the mildest opioid preparations.
Two questions for Ioan: 1) how much marijuana is still grown in Mexico to supply the export demand (whether US or global), compared with 20 years ago? 2) How much of an opium crop remains in Mexico, and how much opium or derivatives (like morphine and heroin) is shipped out for the global export market, in the era of synthetic opioids like fentanyl?
One of my thoughts about the ascendance of fentanyl and other synthetic analogs in the illicit market is that they have the potential to eliminate any need to devote thousands of acres to cultivating opium, of to maintain labs to refine morphine and modify morphine into heroin. I wonder how much the "disruptive technology" of the manufacture of synthetic opioids and their precursors has undercut opium production in Mexico.
It's going to take efforts on both fronts. 1)Mitigating the power and violence by the cartels and their transportation of drugs money and guns across the border, both directions, the classic drug interdiction method . 2) creating a better system of prevention (most importantly) and recovery, the social aspect, so to speak . We seem to be stuck in this binary trap where people only want one or the other.
However the reality we need both, but the social intervention model isn't at a scale yet where it is effective. There's no reason we can't start trying new interdiction methods like Crenshaw suggests while we continue to increase the availability and effectiveness of social measures.
Hey there EPoch270. Yeah, totally agreed that there needs to be a multi pronged approach and also a long term one. This has been going on for decades and a lot of these problems will carry on. There needs to be efforts with realistic goals as well, reducing the number of bodies. All of this unfortunately goes against what a lot of the broken politics can deliver. People like emotive actions and instant results. Another issue is that different government departments have different goals. But also your final comment is very important "Whatever we are doing now is not working." - There has to be a reaction to the current crisis. Hoping it will get better one day and all best there friend.
Yep, we definitely need some sort of drug policy reform. I still think when we get down to the nitty and gritty though it is quite tricky to figure out exactly what. But more on this come. Great to hear your voice here and felices fiestas there Ian.
I live in a huge enclave of gringos who came here in retirement. Many, if not most, are blindly and blissfully unaware of their personal vulnerability to the cartel that is the shadow government, shadow business and shadow property development in many locations here. The cartel owns outright several elected officials in positions of civic power. The gringos' reaction to a couple corpses found here, some headless bodies found there, news of desaparecidos in this town or that is, "Don't get involved with drugs and you'll be perfectly safe." Just say no, in other words: Nancy would be proud.
Here's the reality, eliding the details of goings-on at dealers and local bosses levels:
1. The biggest municipality here is the birthplace and hometown of the cartel's founder and boss.
2. Because of the area's geography, a single, two-lane thoroughfare, always jammed with (mostly gringo) traffic, is the *only*, repeat ONLY means of accessing the two egress points (some 40 miles apart) leading to major arteries for travel out of the area. Both of these exit points are controlled by the cartel. Even Santa Anna wouldn't fail to see the overwhelming strategic advantage here.
3. There are numerous other assets and stratagems available to the Bad Guys in Black Hats here. Suffice to say that in the event of war or any lesser hostility engaged in by the United States, there would be unparalleled, unimaginable slaughter here. Shut the f___ up, Senator.
Thanks for the comment there Kathleen - This is a very interesting portrait of a "gringo" enclave in Mexico in the times of the great drug war that is worthy of an essay in itself. All best there and please keep in touch.
Thank you for your kind words, Ioan. I've been working up to an essay ... but there are issues, as I know you understand.
Thanks again.
Absolutely, you need to be careful on exactly what you say and how you frame certain things. But I think this is a fascinating subject matter and I would certainly be interested to read it. Best.
Fascinating reply from someone at the coalface, as it were. Thanks for sharing .
Sending US advisors anywhere the results are always the same. They never leave. To me a lot of this from this side is to gloss over certain realities. If there wasn’t the demand there wouldn’t be these problems caused by the suppliers. It’s always been that way. The products just change.
Yes, thanks Daniel. That is definitely a big point about how these interventions whether in Vietnam or Afghanistan can just keep growing. Once they start, they have a force of their own. Best there.
Spend every dollar on the drug war going after the money.
It's the blood of the trade.
Yeah, it certainly is. And it's amazing how much is not followed. I discovered the case of a shone shine guy in Chiapas who suddenly appeared with four hotels and two gas stations - the word is he was washing money of El Chapo. (More of that in a story). Best David.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw is a war mongering fool and an absolute tool of the military establishment including the private defense contractors and the intelligence community. Of course Crenshaw is not in favor of declaring the cartels as a terrorist organization. That declaration would eliminate the drug war gravy train that so many US companies are involved with including exclusive sales and contracts with the Mexican government of vehicles and militarized vehicles, weapons especially military grade weapons, police clothing gear and airplanes. Crenshaw would not jeopardize the support of his military campaign donors. But yeah bring on the US troops which would be another financial bonanza to the military industrial establishment who are already overflowing with money and future contracts with the US actions in the Ukraine and Israel. Crenshaw has never criticized those actions and has never criticized our continued presence in Syria and Africa and at the same time promoting possible future military conflict with China, Iran and Russia. The term neocon just drips all over Crenshaw.
If you are truly concerned about the fentanyl deaths in the United States, why not propose actions in the United States to attack this problem. He never mentioned in the interview attempts to destroy the financial laundering of drug money in the United States. He never proposed troop assistance to US law enforcement to battle the cartel street control in the United States which is not hard to find. He never proposed Congressional hearings on the continued role of the CIA in international drug dealings and the lack of FBI enforcement in the United States. He is truly the salesman for the war for profit movement in the United States which is truly destroying this country. If you are interested in the idea of social work for drug addicts, how in the hell can that be financed when billions of dollars is wasted on absurd military adventures without any real benefit to United States citizens.
The United States is not interested in helping Mexico with this terrible scourge of violence. This country is only interested in profiting from this violence. What fool thinks that the US military could provide any essential benefit to Mexico's struggles against the cartels. The record of corruption and uselessness by the US military in the past 65 years should provide you with a true record of failure and gross strategic misunderstanding of the political actions by the military.
The United States will never even admit that they are the reason for the rise of the cartels because we provide the largest customer base for cartels. Without America's junkies, cartels would starve.
"Without America's junkies, cartels would starve" - That is a fine phrase. A big question I am wondering is why really the United States has such high rates of drug use, and if it actually can be reduced, or if that should be seen as a clear objective. All best there Tom.
Drug use and I include alcohol abuse is truly a cultural problem. From the promotion of alcohol as a good drug alternative to anything else and the promotion now of weed as a cure all, creates this whole acceptance of drug use. We are an industrialized country that has the fewest days of paid vacation and there is a tremendous lack of self worth among retirees that points to a culture that does not know what to do with leisure time. We work too hard but do not know how to play hard responsibly. We are also bombarded since childhood that there is always a pharmaceutical solution to physical and mental pain or even tiredness. A more natural form of healthcare could definitely change the future. My grandson once ask me why do not drink and I told him drinking is far too expensive to see all that money spent on drinking pissing down a toilet.
For the present attacks on drug use will be brutal by attacking supply and distribution in a way which could be be very similar to what China did but with a lot of care and assistance for drug users. I do not know if my country has reached this point and obviously they have not if the sentiments of Crenshaw are in the majority.
Yes, I think for foreign visitors to America, the way that commercial drugs are advertised always grabs attention and is part of of America's "exceptionalism." Drinking is an interesting one as it is big in America but even bigger in some European and especially Eastern European countries. "A more natural form of healthcare could definitely change the future" - this one certainly seems an important one. Let's see if we have touched bottom yet or there is even worse to go...
American idolization of Navy Seals has reached a fever pitch. Just because this ambitious Congressman was a SEAL, doesn’t mean he is an expert in anything other then his own self promotion.
It’s telling, this REPUBLICAN, avoids the question of how the cartels are Armed by US gun manufacturers. He also clearly doesn’t know Cartel history and know training has been done before, that went on to produce The ZETAS.
I have complete confidence and admiration of Mexican Marines.
My solutions would be for ALMO to offer less prosecutions for cartels that forbid FENTANYL and cartels that reduce violence.
The US should reward Mexico with Ukraine level financial assistance for elimination of Fentanyl coming across and managing migrants on the MEXICAN side of the border.
Great reporting as always Sir.
Thanks for the support and insight as always Bobby X. Yes, one of the big fronts of the battle I think is social work in Mexico to stop the next generation of cartel sicarios being recruited. Another is seeing how, if it is possible, to reduce the size of the blackmarket in drugs. These are very tough tasks though friend. All best to you.
Bourgogne is right that it would be a blank check to some pretty vicious elements within the US military and intelligence communities, as well as their friends in the industrial complex.
Crenshaw is a bloviating fool, as usual; trying to spin what his leash-holders, Trump and through him, his owners, baldly state to their ravening cult.
Mexico already has cops on top of cops on top of cops on top of cops; military and otherwise. Clearly force isn't the answer to this situation.
Thanks there Shaggy as always. Yes, I think there is no quick military fix to this. On the flip side, I think it is right that this level of drug overdoses should be seen as a very serious problem - and the rise of paramilitary organized crime in Mexico is a serious issue that has to be considered. I am not sure what all the solutions are, but am sure they are hard and long term. All best there friend.
If, in response to attack, cartel soldiers became terrorists in the USA, it would be apocalyptic, on a scale never seen in human history.
That is an interesting (and scary) idea and one I hadn't thought of before. One thing is that cartels are generally careful in the United States as they don't want to bring unwanted attention that threatens their flow of billions of dollars. However, in the future who knows? Same shit, different terrorism. Best there friend.
Yeah, the cartels have infiltrated the USA more than any opposition in any other country. I'm surprised people aren't using it as a reason to oppose the crazy ideas of tequila-thirsty U.S. politicians. It should be scary to be a quiet American (for this, Israel etc. because there will always be blowback). May you be well too. Live longer!
Final thought: https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/12/13/natos-cocaine-cartels-the-make-believe-putin-syrian-iranian-connections/
Yeah, I don't think the depth of cartel infiltration in the U.S. has sunk in yet, or the consequences played out. But that could well come. I'll check out the link there.
Your first fiction book theme... :)
The reality here in Mexico is already crazier than fiction - but I think I need to write the screenplay for Rise of the Planet of the Narco Apes...
One near-certain result of a more aggressive Mexico-US paramilitary effort to suppress "the cartels" is liable to be increased immigration pressure across the border into the US. On a border where CBP agents have already tabulated 2.5 million stops in the year 2023, with only a limited impact on the waves of people crossing the border into the US.
From what I'm noticing, much of the current situation is a long-term indirect result of population increase between 1070 and 2020, with the overflow at first primarily regional (Mexico and Central America) and now global, from everywhere. But most of the stimulus for immigration to the US from Mexico was initially the result of the increased power of the organized crime networks in the countryside, which both recruited the local residents as drug mules, or encouraged them to leave in droves as refugees (whether officially defined as refugees or not.) Who would leave their home in a mountain paradise like Michoacan if it hadn't been corrupted and dominated by criminal gangs? The US used to have a thriving bracero program with those Mexican states; seasonal workers would migrate north during harvest seasons, and then return to their villages and homesteads. I don't know what's become of the bracero program. But it had to have been destabilized as a result of the takeover of those rural areas by the criminal "cartel" gangs in the first decade of the 21st century, and the parallel state that has become entrenched since then.
If the region becomes the site of an intensified counterinsurgency conflict, more of the residents of those battlegrounds will flee, many of them heading north into the US. I don't think that even the most professional, uncorrupted, and finely targeted effort against the cartel leaders and their military bodyguard can be done without increasing the disruptions in the conflict zones and encouraging population evacuation and relocation. Furthermore, military incursions aren't a real solution. Real solutions will require dismantling the Prohibition-enabled criminal monopoly over supply with controlled prescription maintenance for addicts, long-term inpatient rehabilitation, and (possibly) regulated legalization of the mildest opioid preparations.
Two questions for Ioan: 1) how much marijuana is still grown in Mexico to supply the export demand (whether US or global), compared with 20 years ago? 2) How much of an opium crop remains in Mexico, and how much opium or derivatives (like morphine and heroin) is shipped out for the global export market, in the era of synthetic opioids like fentanyl?
One of my thoughts about the ascendance of fentanyl and other synthetic analogs in the illicit market is that they have the potential to eliminate any need to devote thousands of acres to cultivating opium, of to maintain labs to refine morphine and modify morphine into heroin. I wonder how much the "disruptive technology" of the manufacture of synthetic opioids and their precursors has undercut opium production in Mexico.
It's going to take efforts on both fronts. 1)Mitigating the power and violence by the cartels and their transportation of drugs money and guns across the border, both directions, the classic drug interdiction method . 2) creating a better system of prevention (most importantly) and recovery, the social aspect, so to speak . We seem to be stuck in this binary trap where people only want one or the other.
However the reality we need both, but the social intervention model isn't at a scale yet where it is effective. There's no reason we can't start trying new interdiction methods like Crenshaw suggests while we continue to increase the availability and effectiveness of social measures.
Whatever we are doing now is not working.
Hey there EPoch270. Yeah, totally agreed that there needs to be a multi pronged approach and also a long term one. This has been going on for decades and a lot of these problems will carry on. There needs to be efforts with realistic goals as well, reducing the number of bodies. All of this unfortunately goes against what a lot of the broken politics can deliver. People like emotive actions and instant results. Another issue is that different government departments have different goals. But also your final comment is very important "Whatever we are doing now is not working." - There has to be a reaction to the current crisis. Hoping it will get better one day and all best there friend.
Yep, we definitely need some sort of drug policy reform. I still think when we get down to the nitty and gritty though it is quite tricky to figure out exactly what. But more on this come. Great to hear your voice here and felices fiestas there Ian.