Hey there Will. Good question. I think this gives yet more motivation for the Central American countries to crack down very hard on the gangs and more ammunition to justify that politically. However, I think the influence will be more the other way round - I could see Ecuador closely copying Bukele in El Salvador and his crackdown on gangs. All best there friend.
So true! I think Castro’s attempts at copying Bukele’s approach are almost halfhearted. That crack in her armor might be enough for the gangs and possibly cartel influence to take advantage of, maybe? Or, similar to what you said, scare enough to fully embrace the El Salvador approach. Keep up the great work and be safe!
Thanks Will. Yes, good point on Castro. Honduras and Guatemala are ones to watch in that respect. Bukele actually talks about "unifying the region" (taking over those countries) but I don't know how much that is fantasy. Cheers and appreciated.
The evolution of FARC from a revolutionary group in Columbia to various drug smuggling gangs along the Ecuador and Columbian border may have been the start of the wave of violence spreading through Ecuador.
I think you are right in pointing to the Jalisco New Generation cartel as an agent of drug violence especially since they seem to be involved in every major Pacific Ocean port from Mexico to Chile.
Very good point Tom. I hadn't thought of that but that sounds like a key factor. Yes, the FARC were a strange hybrid of genuine political guerillas and effective cocaine army. The fragments that are left could be adding to the mix. It is tragic and interesting how Ecuador blew up so fast. All best and keep in touch there.
Thanks Andrew. Yes, they definitely need to keep an open mind to all avenues of investigation. There could well be corrupt politicians or police/ military figures involved as well as gangs. There could also be corrupt politicians using the narco violence as a cover. And yet another factor is that politicians can accuse rivals of involvement to stain them. Either way, it's a bloody mess and violence begets violence. Great to hear voice in this forum friend.
Thanks much for sending. I hadn't seen this take. I certainly think it's important to expose what the CIA does in Latin America. However, this one seems a stretch without some clear proof they were behind. Still I appreciate the link and keep in touch there. Best.
It started to get bad in 2019 but it has got a lot worse over the last two years. I think the causes included the change of cocaine routes, the pandemic smashing the economy and an evolution of the gangs. Maybe it was a bomb waiting to go off. Best there David.
What effect (if any) do you think this assassination has on El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala’s fights with MS-13 and 18 street?
Hey there Will. Good question. I think this gives yet more motivation for the Central American countries to crack down very hard on the gangs and more ammunition to justify that politically. However, I think the influence will be more the other way round - I could see Ecuador closely copying Bukele in El Salvador and his crackdown on gangs. All best there friend.
So true! I think Castro’s attempts at copying Bukele’s approach are almost halfhearted. That crack in her armor might be enough for the gangs and possibly cartel influence to take advantage of, maybe? Or, similar to what you said, scare enough to fully embrace the El Salvador approach. Keep up the great work and be safe!
Thanks Will. Yes, good point on Castro. Honduras and Guatemala are ones to watch in that respect. Bukele actually talks about "unifying the region" (taking over those countries) but I don't know how much that is fantasy. Cheers and appreciated.
The evolution of FARC from a revolutionary group in Columbia to various drug smuggling gangs along the Ecuador and Columbian border may have been the start of the wave of violence spreading through Ecuador.
I think you are right in pointing to the Jalisco New Generation cartel as an agent of drug violence especially since they seem to be involved in every major Pacific Ocean port from Mexico to Chile.
Very good point Tom. I hadn't thought of that but that sounds like a key factor. Yes, the FARC were a strange hybrid of genuine political guerillas and effective cocaine army. The fragments that are left could be adding to the mix. It is tragic and interesting how Ecuador blew up so fast. All best and keep in touch there.
How about this for another explanation?: rival canidate Jan Topic. See here: "Ecuador: la sospecha sobre el candidato Topic en la muerte de dos políticos", https://negocios.com.ar/mundo/ecuador-la-sospecha-sobre-el-candidato-topic-en-la-muerte-de-dos-politicos/
Thanks Andrew. Yes, they definitely need to keep an open mind to all avenues of investigation. There could well be corrupt politicians or police/ military figures involved as well as gangs. There could also be corrupt politicians using the narco violence as a cover. And yet another factor is that politicians can accuse rivals of involvement to stain them. Either way, it's a bloody mess and violence begets violence. Great to hear voice in this forum friend.
Yes, this is clearly an incomplete story and requires good journalism to explore further.
Great to be part of the forum, mate. Abrazo
FYI here’s a different take on the assassination:
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2023/08/when-a-cia-asset-becomes-a-cia-liability/
Thanks much for sending. I hadn't seen this take. I certainly think it's important to expose what the CIA does in Latin America. However, this one seems a stretch without some clear proof they were behind. Still I appreciate the link and keep in touch there. Best.
Did cartel crime in Ecuador increase or decrease during Trump's term ?
It started to get bad in 2019 but it has got a lot worse over the last two years. I think the causes included the change of cocaine routes, the pandemic smashing the economy and an evolution of the gangs. Maybe it was a bomb waiting to go off. Best there David.