The 10-15% rise since 2018 is real, but that they are still below the 2015 peak. As I understand it Mexico made some judicial reforms that made it harder to keep people in prison without trial, so perhaps they are doing a slightly better job of locking up the right people?
Well appreciated my friend and great links there. I'll definitely be turning to those. I actually think Mexican laws make it hard to convict people, and the police are pretty terrible at gathering evidence, so they just put people in on charges for a few years and then release them a lot of the time. A better justice system is sorely needed in the long term, but I also wonder if there needs to be a different approach to it then trying cut and paste a European or U.S. style system - but quien sabe. All best there Wigan.
I was amazed by Tuchel's strategy change encouraging the English players to be aggressive and less fearful. Even his substitutions were agressive. Where was this strategy when he coached Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich. Even at Chelsea, his strategy seemed mechanized and too controlled even with his success at Chelsea. I think the ghost of Jurgen Klopp has permeated his football mind.
Typical Steven Clarke strategy against Morocco. Completely negative and does not even put Shankland, Scotland's most prolific striker in the match. Absolutely pissed.
South Korea was even more negative against Mexico and their performance was a disgrace.
US battle against the Australian thugs was impressive although the US needs to be more ruthless at goal.
I was overjoyed by the England game, and completely switched from being "Southgate should have stayed and can't be managed by a German" to "Tuchel you beauty." I don't want to be too excited after one game but, "Come on Inger-lund." People here in Mexico are also pumped. It was crazy at the Angel after the Korea game and I think the celebrations make keep getting bigger.
This is one cartel operation I have never dealt with. "Juking" the causes of death by the medical examiner. The deceased was found armless and headless and manner of death examined? Suicide would make the books look cleaner I reckon. Reminds of the Sheriff in Louisiana commenting the corpse. of a black man, was found with fourteen bullet holes. "Worst case of suicide I have ever seen" he noted. Guanajuato medical examiner has to keep a spreadsheet to decide manner of death? And the disappeared? No matter they never reappear they escape judgement because they may be still alive? Yeah Sherlock, taxes are going also down along with the cost of eggs in China! I read several Mexican dailies daily. The violent deaths displayed every day are likely leading to additional printer's ink required to share the stories. Additional bytes of storage these days. Monterrey and Mexico City have a separate section to describe the mayhem apart from the Nacional or Ciudad sections, Serguridad it's titled. Without the crime stories Sinaloa Debate would be nicely condensed. And remove all the disappeared cards they publish they would be hard to be considered a newspaper. The number of murders going down is a stretch that only the government could report.
"Mass suicide by self decapitations" would certainly be one for the ages. Gary Webb shot himself twice in the head - although actually he probably did. Corpses have a habit of being created with no perp. Disappearance without a trace, the worst fate for a family. Will the war end in the end. I think it has to. But I'm often wrong. (Trying to answer you in the same gonzo you write with beautifully).
Ah yes, the so-called suicide of Gary Webb. First the coroner proclaimed the death as a homicide by multiple bullets. Then he changed his initial conclusion to suicide by two bullets and then changed his conclusion to suicide by a single bullet and then officially proclaimed suicide by two bullets. Gary Webb's personal friends at the time stated that Webb was certainly not suicidal and Ricky Ross had talked to him a few days before his death and Webb claimed there were death threats against him and he noticed men scaling down from his roof and certainly did not look like burglars when he confronted them. It was a house moving crew that found his body and it is odd that a man that is suicidal had scheduled a move for that day. Celerino Castillo, a former DEA agent, stated categorically that Webb's death was a revenge murder.
"and it is odd that a man that is suicidal had scheduled a move for that day"
It's actually pretty normal for a suicidal person to do things exactly like that. Some people do plan suicides months advance but even in those cases they don't typically set a date, and in the meantime life goes on with eating, bathing, etc.. But more commonly suicide is an impulsive event and few people tie up every loose end.
Look into cases of individual suicides and you'll also probably find it's not particularly rare for personal friends to not really pick up on the signals. Most people don't broadcast it.
It's a very sad case. I talked to Nick Schou who knew Gary (and Gary respected him) and wrote the book Kill The Messenger about Webb. He thinks it was suicide but that also members of the press drove him to it. I need to check out more of Celerino Castillo's stuff though (I think Celerino has passed away now) and look up that on the coroner's report...
Great article, really balanced. Best piece I have read on the subject. So my question, why juke (i always thought it was duke) the stats if they are already going down? Doesnt it just breed a general sense of disbelief? Or was it just a pre WC publicity stunt? Which seems rather cruel and provocative with 12,000 disappeared every year?
Thanks much there estimado Ben. I think there was general pressure across states to get numbers down by all ways - this included juking stats and other ways. It looks much more impressive to get a 40 percent reduction than a 10 percent reduction as well. And if the previous admin was already messing with numbers you dont want to go clean and risk seeing an increase because of it!
Discrepancy in murder statistics? Could this be a problem with a statistical algorithm? How about a problem with the initial compiling of the statistical information or just the fact that nobody can count? None of this really clarifies the statistical mystery. LYING, that is the real reason, which always corresponds to political parties trying to throw political death punches to their political opponents. Government statistics have always been a wastebin of unbelievable lies, fabrications and untruths however way you want to describe it. Any government statistic about violence and murder is always incredibly manipulated and reeks of the fabricated shit placed in the public sphere.
No better example exists of this political lying network then in the United States. It was proclaimed with highly placed publicity in 2023, beating their chests in righteous anger, that Detroit Michigan, the pariah of so-called violent crime, has made a remarkable comeback. The murder rate since 1966 has plummeted dramatically and the complaints about the violence in Detroit were right-wing fantasies and expressions of latent racism. Actually there were 252 murders in 2023, a little above the 232 murders in 1966 but what was really missed in this political farce was that the population of Detroit in 1966 was 1.6 million people and in 2023 the population was 600,000. So the murder rate had skyrocketed to 41 murders per 100,000 compared to 15 murders per 100,000 in 1966. Was this an accident in the application of new math education? Hardly because the same nonsense was proclaimed about other cities with the same results upon closed inspection. All lies for political advantage and the media regurgitates the same crap without any inspection of the claims. ALL political parties perpetuate these statistical lies and the foundation for accurate statistical information is eroded by lack of required reporting and/or a complete dismissal of any information that is a challenge to your political aims and gains. It is truly a system of lies and coverups designed to manipulate the general public.
Mexico suffers from not only underfunded and under trained police departments, but also from the standard political lying so prevalent in the United States. Political opponents of the Morena party would like to claim that the murder rate has increased and the Morena party would like to claim a victory against violence. You honestly cannot trust any political discussions and proclamations about this subject. Just devising a definition of what is a homicide has provoked a bitter political discussion, not only in Mexico, but in the United States. The discussion is like an evasion of the real problem. Too many people have died and their is no way to spin, twist and even lie about the problem especially when there is a major war between cartel factions which really complicates any discussion about murder rates. Crime and violence is the threat to any ruling party's continued reign of power and rarely is it discussed in a honest fashion or acted upon in any real human concerns.
Another strong intervention here. All you say is painfully true, but I also don't want to go into the total cynicism of a post truth world. In Detroit or Tijuana they would love to claim there were no murders but they can't because many people have lost family members to bullets and reporters have photographed corpses. I guess we need to keep reporting and pushing on these issues and trying to paint the most real picture we can, albeit showing a certain nuance and doubt. Perhaps in the future, we can actually use tech to get more transparency rather than tech just throwing up more doubt.
Unfortunately, tech is developed for surveillance and control not for transparency. That is why the US federal government is threatened by states and cities banning AI data centers which many cities have already done.
Let us continue to rejoice with the government's statistics indicate a lowering of the murder rate. Right in front of my eyes I am reading a report from Debate Sinaloa today that shows the state of Sinaloa records the lowest incidence of selling drugs when compared to the country as a whole. Quick!! Memo to all the businesses that have shuttered in Culiacan. "Raise the curtains for we have prevailed in the Republic! Business is back and none is of a criminal nature!
Any good news can give a spark of hope. Have we touched bottom in the murders in the south and overdoses in the north? Maybe but the future will tell. Best to Christopher and family in upstate SC.
Very important article. It's good to get some information on what is going on with these claims of huge reductions of homicides. I can believe that numbers have gone down some due to Harfuch working with usa Intel to find and take out violent criminals. What's irritating is having scheinbaum claim it's her success when it's more like joint operations that she has tantrums over when they get exposed. What's also unnerving is that it's happening as a result of a Palantir surveillance state which is what Mexico is rapidly becoming.
Thanks there Joe. Yeah, a good point about Harfuch's ops on major targets (El Perris, Mencho, Jardinero) can also involve U.S. intel. The fact that the Mexican prison population has been bumped up is also under reported. Yet, we are still dealing with a lot of unknowns when it comes this body count (and not the Ice T band!)
Good point about the rise of incarceration. Unfortunately mass incarceration works where social programs fail. I see leftist writers claiming that Scheinbaum found some magic way around incarceration to bring down violent crime as a way to discredit Bukele. When in fact incarcerations have gone up significantly in Mexico
Yes, the Mexican government is doing it, without making publicity about it - like Obama doing a lot of deportations but not speaking on them. Funny game: politics.
Few would really complain about locking up or deporting those that have been given due process and it has been shown they deserve the punishment. Locking up everyone and their pet dog because the cops have quotas to meet and “it just as well be you” is an entirely different thing.
On the Caborca Coast bodies have been buried and never counted in the hundreds for 20 years plus....numbers were unbelievable then too....you could tell by the cemeteries with only headstones and no grave
Thanks there Curt Mash. Yep, Calderon indeed showed frustration with the system and pushed the idea of making it more federalized - for a time I thought that was the solution but then I am not so sure now. (Calderon's legacy was also badly stained by the Garcia Luna case). All best there friend and it is great to have your voice here.
Great topic to shed light on! I've been wondering about this exact topic, so I loved reading the different arguments for what might be going on
There's a site that tracks both INEGI and SESNSP homicides state-by-state: https://elcri.men/en/ Lots of suspicious gaps
This one tracks incarceration over time https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/mexico
The 10-15% rise since 2018 is real, but that they are still below the 2015 peak. As I understand it Mexico made some judicial reforms that made it harder to keep people in prison without trial, so perhaps they are doing a slightly better job of locking up the right people?
I also have a web page that tracks the FBI / CDC gap in the USA. The gap between them is very similar to the one in Mexico, but I suspect the drivers are different: https://theusaindata.pythonanywhere.com/underreported_homicides
Thanks again for the article, I love seeing a new CrashOut in my email.
Well appreciated my friend and great links there. I'll definitely be turning to those. I actually think Mexican laws make it hard to convict people, and the police are pretty terrible at gathering evidence, so they just put people in on charges for a few years and then release them a lot of the time. A better justice system is sorely needed in the long term, but I also wonder if there needs to be a different approach to it then trying cut and paste a European or U.S. style system - but quien sabe. All best there Wigan.
World Cup update-
I was amazed by Tuchel's strategy change encouraging the English players to be aggressive and less fearful. Even his substitutions were agressive. Where was this strategy when he coached Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich. Even at Chelsea, his strategy seemed mechanized and too controlled even with his success at Chelsea. I think the ghost of Jurgen Klopp has permeated his football mind.
Typical Steven Clarke strategy against Morocco. Completely negative and does not even put Shankland, Scotland's most prolific striker in the match. Absolutely pissed.
South Korea was even more negative against Mexico and their performance was a disgrace.
US battle against the Australian thugs was impressive although the US needs to be more ruthless at goal.
I was overjoyed by the England game, and completely switched from being "Southgate should have stayed and can't be managed by a German" to "Tuchel you beauty." I don't want to be too excited after one game but, "Come on Inger-lund." People here in Mexico are also pumped. It was crazy at the Angel after the Korea game and I think the celebrations make keep getting bigger.
This is one cartel operation I have never dealt with. "Juking" the causes of death by the medical examiner. The deceased was found armless and headless and manner of death examined? Suicide would make the books look cleaner I reckon. Reminds of the Sheriff in Louisiana commenting the corpse. of a black man, was found with fourteen bullet holes. "Worst case of suicide I have ever seen" he noted. Guanajuato medical examiner has to keep a spreadsheet to decide manner of death? And the disappeared? No matter they never reappear they escape judgement because they may be still alive? Yeah Sherlock, taxes are going also down along with the cost of eggs in China! I read several Mexican dailies daily. The violent deaths displayed every day are likely leading to additional printer's ink required to share the stories. Additional bytes of storage these days. Monterrey and Mexico City have a separate section to describe the mayhem apart from the Nacional or Ciudad sections, Serguridad it's titled. Without the crime stories Sinaloa Debate would be nicely condensed. And remove all the disappeared cards they publish they would be hard to be considered a newspaper. The number of murders going down is a stretch that only the government could report.
"Mass suicide by self decapitations" would certainly be one for the ages. Gary Webb shot himself twice in the head - although actually he probably did. Corpses have a habit of being created with no perp. Disappearance without a trace, the worst fate for a family. Will the war end in the end. I think it has to. But I'm often wrong. (Trying to answer you in the same gonzo you write with beautifully).
Ah yes, the so-called suicide of Gary Webb. First the coroner proclaimed the death as a homicide by multiple bullets. Then he changed his initial conclusion to suicide by two bullets and then changed his conclusion to suicide by a single bullet and then officially proclaimed suicide by two bullets. Gary Webb's personal friends at the time stated that Webb was certainly not suicidal and Ricky Ross had talked to him a few days before his death and Webb claimed there were death threats against him and he noticed men scaling down from his roof and certainly did not look like burglars when he confronted them. It was a house moving crew that found his body and it is odd that a man that is suicidal had scheduled a move for that day. Celerino Castillo, a former DEA agent, stated categorically that Webb's death was a revenge murder.
"and it is odd that a man that is suicidal had scheduled a move for that day"
It's actually pretty normal for a suicidal person to do things exactly like that. Some people do plan suicides months advance but even in those cases they don't typically set a date, and in the meantime life goes on with eating, bathing, etc.. But more commonly suicide is an impulsive event and few people tie up every loose end.
Look into cases of individual suicides and you'll also probably find it's not particularly rare for personal friends to not really pick up on the signals. Most people don't broadcast it.
A very dark and sad thing how people take their own lives indeed. Then again, fake suicides do indeed exist as well…
It's a very sad case. I talked to Nick Schou who knew Gary (and Gary respected him) and wrote the book Kill The Messenger about Webb. He thinks it was suicide but that also members of the press drove him to it. I need to check out more of Celerino Castillo's stuff though (I think Celerino has passed away now) and look up that on the coroner's report...
Great article, really balanced. Best piece I have read on the subject. So my question, why juke (i always thought it was duke) the stats if they are already going down? Doesnt it just breed a general sense of disbelief? Or was it just a pre WC publicity stunt? Which seems rather cruel and provocative with 12,000 disappeared every year?
Thanks much there estimado Ben. I think there was general pressure across states to get numbers down by all ways - this included juking stats and other ways. It looks much more impressive to get a 40 percent reduction than a 10 percent reduction as well. And if the previous admin was already messing with numbers you dont want to go clean and risk seeing an increase because of it!
Discrepancy in murder statistics? Could this be a problem with a statistical algorithm? How about a problem with the initial compiling of the statistical information or just the fact that nobody can count? None of this really clarifies the statistical mystery. LYING, that is the real reason, which always corresponds to political parties trying to throw political death punches to their political opponents. Government statistics have always been a wastebin of unbelievable lies, fabrications and untruths however way you want to describe it. Any government statistic about violence and murder is always incredibly manipulated and reeks of the fabricated shit placed in the public sphere.
No better example exists of this political lying network then in the United States. It was proclaimed with highly placed publicity in 2023, beating their chests in righteous anger, that Detroit Michigan, the pariah of so-called violent crime, has made a remarkable comeback. The murder rate since 1966 has plummeted dramatically and the complaints about the violence in Detroit were right-wing fantasies and expressions of latent racism. Actually there were 252 murders in 2023, a little above the 232 murders in 1966 but what was really missed in this political farce was that the population of Detroit in 1966 was 1.6 million people and in 2023 the population was 600,000. So the murder rate had skyrocketed to 41 murders per 100,000 compared to 15 murders per 100,000 in 1966. Was this an accident in the application of new math education? Hardly because the same nonsense was proclaimed about other cities with the same results upon closed inspection. All lies for political advantage and the media regurgitates the same crap without any inspection of the claims. ALL political parties perpetuate these statistical lies and the foundation for accurate statistical information is eroded by lack of required reporting and/or a complete dismissal of any information that is a challenge to your political aims and gains. It is truly a system of lies and coverups designed to manipulate the general public.
Mexico suffers from not only underfunded and under trained police departments, but also from the standard political lying so prevalent in the United States. Political opponents of the Morena party would like to claim that the murder rate has increased and the Morena party would like to claim a victory against violence. You honestly cannot trust any political discussions and proclamations about this subject. Just devising a definition of what is a homicide has provoked a bitter political discussion, not only in Mexico, but in the United States. The discussion is like an evasion of the real problem. Too many people have died and their is no way to spin, twist and even lie about the problem especially when there is a major war between cartel factions which really complicates any discussion about murder rates. Crime and violence is the threat to any ruling party's continued reign of power and rarely is it discussed in a honest fashion or acted upon in any real human concerns.
Another strong intervention here. All you say is painfully true, but I also don't want to go into the total cynicism of a post truth world. In Detroit or Tijuana they would love to claim there were no murders but they can't because many people have lost family members to bullets and reporters have photographed corpses. I guess we need to keep reporting and pushing on these issues and trying to paint the most real picture we can, albeit showing a certain nuance and doubt. Perhaps in the future, we can actually use tech to get more transparency rather than tech just throwing up more doubt.
Unfortunately, tech is developed for surveillance and control not for transparency. That is why the US federal government is threatened by states and cities banning AI data centers which many cities have already done.
A very interesting movement is brewing there.
Let us continue to rejoice with the government's statistics indicate a lowering of the murder rate. Right in front of my eyes I am reading a report from Debate Sinaloa today that shows the state of Sinaloa records the lowest incidence of selling drugs when compared to the country as a whole. Quick!! Memo to all the businesses that have shuttered in Culiacan. "Raise the curtains for we have prevailed in the Republic! Business is back and none is of a criminal nature!
Hard to sell drugs when some guy is spraying you with an AK?
Would certainly curtail the old school version of selling on the corner.
"The Corner" - a classic by David Simon, talking of The Wire and "juking the stats."
Ioan,
Excellent news for the people. Thank you for your relentless pursuit of justice with evidence from multiple sources.
We are in this together. No Kings.
Peace.
Christopher and family n Upstate SC
Any good news can give a spark of hope. Have we touched bottom in the murders in the south and overdoses in the north? Maybe but the future will tell. Best to Christopher and family in upstate SC.
Very important article. It's good to get some information on what is going on with these claims of huge reductions of homicides. I can believe that numbers have gone down some due to Harfuch working with usa Intel to find and take out violent criminals. What's irritating is having scheinbaum claim it's her success when it's more like joint operations that she has tantrums over when they get exposed. What's also unnerving is that it's happening as a result of a Palantir surveillance state which is what Mexico is rapidly becoming.
Thanks there Joe. Yeah, a good point about Harfuch's ops on major targets (El Perris, Mencho, Jardinero) can also involve U.S. intel. The fact that the Mexican prison population has been bumped up is also under reported. Yet, we are still dealing with a lot of unknowns when it comes this body count (and not the Ice T band!)
Good point about the rise of incarceration. Unfortunately mass incarceration works where social programs fail. I see leftist writers claiming that Scheinbaum found some magic way around incarceration to bring down violent crime as a way to discredit Bukele. When in fact incarcerations have gone up significantly in Mexico
Yes, the Mexican government is doing it, without making publicity about it - like Obama doing a lot of deportations but not speaking on them. Funny game: politics.
Few would really complain about locking up or deporting those that have been given due process and it has been shown they deserve the punishment. Locking up everyone and their pet dog because the cops have quotas to meet and “it just as well be you” is an entirely different thing.
100%
On the Caborca Coast bodies have been buried and never counted in the hundreds for 20 years plus....numbers were unbelievable then too....you could tell by the cemeteries with only headstones and no grave
What a bloody zone that has been. There has definitely been massive under counting but like you say, this goes back a couple of decades at least.
Thanks there Curt Mash. Yep, Calderon indeed showed frustration with the system and pushed the idea of making it more federalized - for a time I thought that was the solution but then I am not so sure now. (Calderon's legacy was also badly stained by the Garcia Luna case). All best there friend and it is great to have your voice here.