This is very upsetting but enlightening to read, thank you for your coverage. Looking forward to the next two parts. This is maybe a tangent, but your mention of that pastor's congregants fleeing for other parts of Mexico or the US made me remember something I've wondered about: how much of Mexican and Central American immigration to the US is driven directly by local violence, as opposed to economic opportunities or other factors. I'm sure it's not as simple as just one or the other, but I've wondered about the connection between this long-term violence and emigration from the region to the US.
Thanks for reading and great to hear your voice here. The violence across the hemisphere is a very significant factor in driving migrants / refugees to the United States. As you point out, the causes combine and people flee both hunger and bullets. Solutions to all of this is hard, and I don't think this implies the U.S. has an obligation to take all of those fleeing violence, but the reality is that it is a key cause. All best there Will.
Actually Ioan the United States created that obligation by approving the Universal Declaration of Human Rights after World War 2 through the United Nations and signed their approval of the 1951 proposal on refugees rights and the follow up in 1967 on new protocols to refugees. That is one reason why immigrations courts and proceedings are so incredibly slow and understaffed. The United States is trying to bury it's international obligations it signed and agreed to. Also that is one of the reasons the United States is reluctant to declare cartels as terrorist organizations. That would create the acknowledgement that there are proper cases for asylum for Mexicans in the United States, The United States never felt there could be a refugee problems on our borders, so no problem we will sign the refugee accords. Here is the United Nations Refugee Agency link that provides interesting history of the accords-
Yeah, the U.S. certainly has commitments under this treaty - and is currently only partly fulfilling them, while the reality of border policy is somewhat all over the place...
Yes, you have seen that at times when cartels are too predatory and burn their own base. When the Zetas took over Monterrey in 2010 period, they shook down all the bars until they just shut down and there was nowhere for them to sell drugs. Some of the longer lasting cartels - like Sinaloa - manage to have a finer balance between their carrot and stick.
The term "Banana Republic" was coined in the 1904 novel Cabbages and Kings about a fictional country called the Republic of Anchuria based on Honduras - (I just love that anecdote)...
I do not think that the Mexican government allowing states to fall is entirely by accident especially in Chiapas. When the Zapatista movement launched their armed struggle in 1994, the Mexican government's reaction to the struggle was not very successful and resulted in very publicized human rights abuses. I think that the Mexican government supported the coffee growers paramilitary groups in Chiapas to help do their dirty work. Considering the corruption of the Mexican government actions in other states it is not hard to assume their complicit corrupt connection to cartels operating in Chiapas.
The Zapatista movement is fascinating and inspiring and will be the subject of one of the Chiapas pieces. Still, there are some things I discovered which deflated my ideas on the movement somewhat - yet more on that to come later. But RE the government, or elements of it, working with the cartels there, absolutely.
Here is a quote from Grey Dynamics, a London base intelligence analysis company. "The US provided training to the Kaibiles in counterinsurgency and unconventional warfare before, during, and after Guatemala’s 36-year genocide. The first instructors of Kaibil training were US Rangers. Over time the course took on the nuances of Guatemalan military training." This is from their history of the Kaibiles and the link is here-
The United States has always promoted their actions as the will of God with their Manifest Destiny philosophy over North America and has extended that philosophy to South America. Manifest Destiny was brought up by political commenters and politicians justifying our involvement in Venezeula and Bolivia during the Trump administration. The United States has never shied away from supporting some of the most ruthless and corrupt political administrations and groups around the world especially militarily.
Fascinating piece on the Kaibiles. Yeah, they were key in the escalation of violence in Mexico when they worked with the Zetas. Now it seems they could have an even bigger role in the Jalisco Cartel operation in Chiapas. It would be interesting to know just how many there are there and what level of command they have.
This is an interesting post and you’ve given me an idea. Apparently as you suggest, the cartels are a more efficient method of “controlling “ situations so maybe the US should make a deal with them to control the flow of migrants to the border here. Since the cartels make money from that of course they would need to be compensated for lost income. But maybe a cost + 20% would work. Thanks for this post.
Ha ha. Thanks for the thought Daniel. I presume this is an ironic thought experiment, but it illustrates a frightening reality. The human smuggling business is said to be worth 10 billion a year, so yeah for a cost of 12 billion they probably could stop the flow of migrants. Don't say that too loud though or we could actually hear it Congress. All best friend.
That would be a pretty dark realism - although such deals with the devil have certainly been done at some quarters in the darker parts of the U.S. government apparatus...
There are different sized devils, and the biggest is the USA's foreign policy. Imagine a heaven (I'm sticking with the metaphor) where the USA worked for peace and focused on its closest areas of influence. Mexico (and Central America and South America) could be better places.
Ioan, can you expand a little on those things regarding the EZLN?
In fairness, even Marcos admitted they expected others to revolt in 1994. There's no anarchism in one country theory ala Leninism so they're in uncharted waters. They've long surpassed the CNT and Makhnochina holding territory.
I have a story I am working on the EZLN. But tin short, the idea of the Zapatistas holding a lot of territory does not hold. Back with more on that and I hope all is well King Mob. Good to hear your voice here.
I have a feeling that 24 is gonna be a big one. (But then you don't need to be Nostradamus to predict a bit of turmoil this year). Happy elections. The one's in Mexico look like a foregone conclusion, but then quien sabe.
This is the best reporting I've seen from you. I will upgrade to paid subscription very soon.
Your assessment of how these crime groups have in just a couple of years taken over native town and village organic and autonomous networks, was very troubling. The co-ops, councils, committees, schools, and so on, now penetrated by people reporting to the narcos.
Are the drugs still the key to this? Does the solution require the decriminalization of drugs?
After all, isn't this all part of the U.S. War on Drugs?
Didn't Benjamin T. Smith write that the war between the rival drug organizations was not a natural one, but instead resulted from the protection of the police and Army and the local and state governments? Doesn't the violence come from the fact that this merchandise is illegal and must be supported by corrupt officials who get a cut? Is this phase over now?
There can be no discussion of the decriminalization of drugs without attacking the real players behind the drug dealing, government officials and agencies and the financial institutions who facilitate the $300-400 billion into the world's most massive laundering operation. The US War on Drugs is a coverup for regime change and political blackmail around the world. Hidden behind the facade of trying to stop the drug trade is political machinations resorting to even blackmail and the homicidal desires to control any countries political actions and economic progress. The bodies of DEA agents and CIA agents and their contacts on the ground, actually concerned with destroying the drug trade, are littered around the world.
Prohibition did not stop or even dent the finances of the Mafia who have also diversified their crime income opportunities with drugs, gambling and extortion and the United States is still destroying itself with alcohol. The state of Oregon tried decriminalizing drugs and it has been a disaster even to the advocates of this policy. They are racing to save face and abolish this naive political sentiment and law. Mexico cannot solve this violence by themselves. The United States is complicit and an active participate in this criminal enterprise but also with very sordid political plans and ambitions. Those tentacles strangle the life out of real attempts to change the violent landscape.
Yes, the power of the CIA and U.S. foreign policy agenda outweighing the drug agenda every time. A key challenge for the twenty first century will be to untangle these two. All best there Tom and felices fiestas.
Really glad you liked the story John and good to hear from you. Sadly, now it is about more than drugs - and drugs are one, albeit a massive, business of the cartels. I still think we have to try and reduce the black market of drug money going to cartels. But after two decades on this, I have come to realize (in my assessment) that "legalization" is not such a simple magic bullet as I hoped. That is not to say that discussion is dead, but it's not a simple one. I'll be writing more on this angle soon. All best there friend.
Can't help but think- though with a high chance of being wrong- that this kind of low-level extortion/ "tax" racket is the action of a crime organization that has fallen on hard times. Successful cartels have no need to antagonize the populace of their areas of control unnecessarily; and they certainly don't need the street vendors' pesos. They're more likely out among the citizenry spending some money, or laundering some; which helps keep the people happy (sort of), and having something to lose if their local outfit goes down.
The only other way I can understand this is if the CJ's or Sinaloans' tactics are pre-emptive against Las Huistas' potential use of Mara-style direct menace tactics to undermine the native mobile power structures. Even so, it's unsustainable and "burns their forest"; and cannot but end very poorly for all concerned.
Hi Shaggy - This is a very interesting point. The Mexican cartels first started to really diversify in the late 2000s / early 2010s. Some U.S. agencies used it as evidence then that this showed they were being beaten and resorting to shake downs as they weren't making enough drug money. In some cases of some cartels, this was true. The Zetas it seems had lost big cocaine connections when they broke with the Gulf Cartel and had a lot of gunmen to pay so began kidnapping and extortion on mass. However, overall what has happened is the cartels still manage to move huge amounts of drugs, and they do all the other activities as well. In this way, they become just bigger organizations / networks with more mouths to feed - a beast that keeps wanting. The Jalisco Cartel overall is very strong and while some parts of it are trafficking drugs, other elements are doing massive shakedowns. It's total size is mind boggling. All best there friend.
That makes more sense, thank you. The only thing is, shaking down the poor bus drivers and market-stall vendors is generating awful will for a not-appreciable amount of money; which can lead to a general desire for crackdowns a la Bukele. No cartel should want to court anything like that, just from a sheer business standpoint. You can't let the small-time jackals run riot over your patch; it violates the social contract with the local legit society that enables you to do the real profitable work in their midst.
Yes in Michoacan in 2014, I think two thing put people over the edge and made them into a mass movement to bring down the cartel - extortion and widespread rape. They got 10,000 men (and some women) with guns to run out the cartel. It would have been a happy ending. But then some of them became the new cartel.
Essential Reporting Ioan. You are probably one of the few on this story. The poor of Chiapas are giving a “Sophie’s Choice” of having to side with a cartel. Extortion is one of the cruelest crimes because the poor work hard, to have to give their earnings to the thugs. The first step in change is making people aware of this. I admire how you put yourself at risk to get the Truth out. When that SUV blocked you in, I can imagine you wondered if they would pull you all out of the vehicle. Meaningful, Breathtaking Journalism. Stay Safe!
Thanks much there Bobby X. Yeah, I had been wanting to get down to Chiapas to find out what was happening for a while. I was actually surprised the New York Times or Washington Post didn't beat me to it - but it shows there is space for these uncovered stories for true independent journalism. Have a great Christmas break there friend and lets get in gear for a big one for 2024.
This is very upsetting but enlightening to read, thank you for your coverage. Looking forward to the next two parts. This is maybe a tangent, but your mention of that pastor's congregants fleeing for other parts of Mexico or the US made me remember something I've wondered about: how much of Mexican and Central American immigration to the US is driven directly by local violence, as opposed to economic opportunities or other factors. I'm sure it's not as simple as just one or the other, but I've wondered about the connection between this long-term violence and emigration from the region to the US.
Thanks for reading and great to hear your voice here. The violence across the hemisphere is a very significant factor in driving migrants / refugees to the United States. As you point out, the causes combine and people flee both hunger and bullets. Solutions to all of this is hard, and I don't think this implies the U.S. has an obligation to take all of those fleeing violence, but the reality is that it is a key cause. All best there Will.
Actually Ioan the United States created that obligation by approving the Universal Declaration of Human Rights after World War 2 through the United Nations and signed their approval of the 1951 proposal on refugees rights and the follow up in 1967 on new protocols to refugees. That is one reason why immigrations courts and proceedings are so incredibly slow and understaffed. The United States is trying to bury it's international obligations it signed and agreed to. Also that is one of the reasons the United States is reluctant to declare cartels as terrorist organizations. That would create the acknowledgement that there are proper cases for asylum for Mexicans in the United States, The United States never felt there could be a refugee problems on our borders, so no problem we will sign the refugee accords. Here is the United Nations Refugee Agency link that provides interesting history of the accords-
https://www.unhcr.org/us/about-unhcr/who-we-are/1951-refugee-convention#:~:text=The%201951%20Refugee%20Convention%20and,of%20States%20to%20protect%20them.
Yeah, the U.S. certainly has commitments under this treaty - and is currently only partly fulfilling them, while the reality of border policy is somewhat all over the place...
It's not a good business model if those you extort flee. More importantly, how tragic it is to be a citizen without a government.
Yes, you have seen that at times when cartels are too predatory and burn their own base. When the Zetas took over Monterrey in 2010 period, they shook down all the bars until they just shut down and there was nowhere for them to sell drugs. Some of the longer lasting cartels - like Sinaloa - manage to have a finer balance between their carrot and stick.
You mean like the Banana Republic of USA.
The fine old United Banana Republics of America. All best there David Cashion.
Damn you liberals who won't forgive the United Fruit Company and their prosperous grandkids.
The term "Banana Republic" was coined in the 1904 novel Cabbages and Kings about a fictional country called the Republic of Anchuria based on Honduras - (I just love that anecdote)...
With lovely coincidence, the next substack I clicked on was https://thelookoutreport1.substack.com/p/guatemala-history-is-repeating-itself?
Ha ha. Or maybe not so funny.
Never knew that. Love it. I see his book title was inspired by Lewis Carol. Jabberwocky is the only thing making sense of our nonsensical world.
Ahh, Jabberwocky. I know the film by some of the Monty Python folk.
I do not think that the Mexican government allowing states to fall is entirely by accident especially in Chiapas. When the Zapatista movement launched their armed struggle in 1994, the Mexican government's reaction to the struggle was not very successful and resulted in very publicized human rights abuses. I think that the Mexican government supported the coffee growers paramilitary groups in Chiapas to help do their dirty work. Considering the corruption of the Mexican government actions in other states it is not hard to assume their complicit corrupt connection to cartels operating in Chiapas.
The Zapatista movement is fascinating and inspiring and will be the subject of one of the Chiapas pieces. Still, there are some things I discovered which deflated my ideas on the movement somewhat - yet more on that to come later. But RE the government, or elements of it, working with the cartels there, absolutely.
Here is a quote from Grey Dynamics, a London base intelligence analysis company. "The US provided training to the Kaibiles in counterinsurgency and unconventional warfare before, during, and after Guatemala’s 36-year genocide. The first instructors of Kaibil training were US Rangers. Over time the course took on the nuances of Guatemalan military training." This is from their history of the Kaibiles and the link is here-
https://greydynamics.com/los-kaibiles-guatemalas-special-operations-forces/#50_Training_of_the_Kaibiles
Also here is gushing praise for the Kaibiles from the United States Special Operations Command in the 2015-
https://www.socom.mil/Pages/KaibilUSSpecialForcespromotesecuritythroughpartnership.aspx
The United States has always promoted their actions as the will of God with their Manifest Destiny philosophy over North America and has extended that philosophy to South America. Manifest Destiny was brought up by political commenters and politicians justifying our involvement in Venezeula and Bolivia during the Trump administration. The United States has never shied away from supporting some of the most ruthless and corrupt political administrations and groups around the world especially militarily.
Fascinating piece on the Kaibiles. Yeah, they were key in the escalation of violence in Mexico when they worked with the Zetas. Now it seems they could have an even bigger role in the Jalisco Cartel operation in Chiapas. It would be interesting to know just how many there are there and what level of command they have.
No shortage of deals or devils
This is an interesting post and you’ve given me an idea. Apparently as you suggest, the cartels are a more efficient method of “controlling “ situations so maybe the US should make a deal with them to control the flow of migrants to the border here. Since the cartels make money from that of course they would need to be compensated for lost income. But maybe a cost + 20% would work. Thanks for this post.
Ha ha. Thanks for the thought Daniel. I presume this is an ironic thought experiment, but it illustrates a frightening reality. The human smuggling business is said to be worth 10 billion a year, so yeah for a cost of 12 billion they probably could stop the flow of migrants. Don't say that too loud though or we could actually hear it Congress. All best friend.
A deal with the Devil is... well... a deal with the Devil. On the other hand, its realism.
That would be a pretty dark realism - although such deals with the devil have certainly been done at some quarters in the darker parts of the U.S. government apparatus...
There are different sized devils, and the biggest is the USA's foreign policy. Imagine a heaven (I'm sticking with the metaphor) where the USA worked for peace and focused on its closest areas of influence. Mexico (and Central America and South America) could be better places.
Ioan, can you expand a little on those things regarding the EZLN?
In fairness, even Marcos admitted they expected others to revolt in 1994. There's no anarchism in one country theory ala Leninism so they're in uncharted waters. They've long surpassed the CNT and Makhnochina holding territory.
But ultimately I don't live there so I dunno.
I have a story I am working on the EZLN. But tin short, the idea of the Zapatistas holding a lot of territory does not hold. Back with more on that and I hope all is well King Mob. Good to hear your voice here.
Would like to read it when you're done. Coincidentally saw a new communique they put out moving towards greater decentralisation, maybe it ties in.
I'm in your neck of the woods, fucking taters. Hope you're well also.
Nice to see you quoted in a quality article - https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/01/more-signs-of-war-in-south-america-as-ecuadorian-government-declares-internal-armed-conflict.html
Ha ha. Always in the best places - happy new year and hope all is well there Big Mike. Same Shit, Different Year
New Year, Bigger Shit. Signs point that way globally, and got divisive elections in my country. We'll arms ourselves with cynicism and make do :)
I have a feeling that 24 is gonna be a big one. (But then you don't need to be Nostradamus to predict a bit of turmoil this year). Happy elections. The one's in Mexico look like a foregone conclusion, but then quien sabe.
Fascinating article. Can’t wait for the rest. Be careful out there!
Thanks so much there Kevin. Have a great new year and back with more ammo soon.
lol I also just started a paid subscription. That should be worth a few rounds
Your support is well appreciated brother, and you get pure 50 cals for that.
This is the best reporting I've seen from you. I will upgrade to paid subscription very soon.
Your assessment of how these crime groups have in just a couple of years taken over native town and village organic and autonomous networks, was very troubling. The co-ops, councils, committees, schools, and so on, now penetrated by people reporting to the narcos.
Are the drugs still the key to this? Does the solution require the decriminalization of drugs?
After all, isn't this all part of the U.S. War on Drugs?
Didn't Benjamin T. Smith write that the war between the rival drug organizations was not a natural one, but instead resulted from the protection of the police and Army and the local and state governments? Doesn't the violence come from the fact that this merchandise is illegal and must be supported by corrupt officials who get a cut? Is this phase over now?
Thank you.
There can be no discussion of the decriminalization of drugs without attacking the real players behind the drug dealing, government officials and agencies and the financial institutions who facilitate the $300-400 billion into the world's most massive laundering operation. The US War on Drugs is a coverup for regime change and political blackmail around the world. Hidden behind the facade of trying to stop the drug trade is political machinations resorting to even blackmail and the homicidal desires to control any countries political actions and economic progress. The bodies of DEA agents and CIA agents and their contacts on the ground, actually concerned with destroying the drug trade, are littered around the world.
Prohibition did not stop or even dent the finances of the Mafia who have also diversified their crime income opportunities with drugs, gambling and extortion and the United States is still destroying itself with alcohol. The state of Oregon tried decriminalizing drugs and it has been a disaster even to the advocates of this policy. They are racing to save face and abolish this naive political sentiment and law. Mexico cannot solve this violence by themselves. The United States is complicit and an active participate in this criminal enterprise but also with very sordid political plans and ambitions. Those tentacles strangle the life out of real attempts to change the violent landscape.
Yes, the power of the CIA and U.S. foreign policy agenda outweighing the drug agenda every time. A key challenge for the twenty first century will be to untangle these two. All best there Tom and felices fiestas.
Really glad you liked the story John and good to hear from you. Sadly, now it is about more than drugs - and drugs are one, albeit a massive, business of the cartels. I still think we have to try and reduce the black market of drug money going to cartels. But after two decades on this, I have come to realize (in my assessment) that "legalization" is not such a simple magic bullet as I hoped. That is not to say that discussion is dead, but it's not a simple one. I'll be writing more on this angle soon. All best there friend.
Can't help but think- though with a high chance of being wrong- that this kind of low-level extortion/ "tax" racket is the action of a crime organization that has fallen on hard times. Successful cartels have no need to antagonize the populace of their areas of control unnecessarily; and they certainly don't need the street vendors' pesos. They're more likely out among the citizenry spending some money, or laundering some; which helps keep the people happy (sort of), and having something to lose if their local outfit goes down.
The only other way I can understand this is if the CJ's or Sinaloans' tactics are pre-emptive against Las Huistas' potential use of Mara-style direct menace tactics to undermine the native mobile power structures. Even so, it's unsustainable and "burns their forest"; and cannot but end very poorly for all concerned.
Hi Shaggy - This is a very interesting point. The Mexican cartels first started to really diversify in the late 2000s / early 2010s. Some U.S. agencies used it as evidence then that this showed they were being beaten and resorting to shake downs as they weren't making enough drug money. In some cases of some cartels, this was true. The Zetas it seems had lost big cocaine connections when they broke with the Gulf Cartel and had a lot of gunmen to pay so began kidnapping and extortion on mass. However, overall what has happened is the cartels still manage to move huge amounts of drugs, and they do all the other activities as well. In this way, they become just bigger organizations / networks with more mouths to feed - a beast that keeps wanting. The Jalisco Cartel overall is very strong and while some parts of it are trafficking drugs, other elements are doing massive shakedowns. It's total size is mind boggling. All best there friend.
That makes more sense, thank you. The only thing is, shaking down the poor bus drivers and market-stall vendors is generating awful will for a not-appreciable amount of money; which can lead to a general desire for crackdowns a la Bukele. No cartel should want to court anything like that, just from a sheer business standpoint. You can't let the small-time jackals run riot over your patch; it violates the social contract with the local legit society that enables you to do the real profitable work in their midst.
Yes in Michoacan in 2014, I think two thing put people over the edge and made them into a mass movement to bring down the cartel - extortion and widespread rape. They got 10,000 men (and some women) with guns to run out the cartel. It would have been a happy ending. But then some of them became the new cartel.
Essential Reporting Ioan. You are probably one of the few on this story. The poor of Chiapas are giving a “Sophie’s Choice” of having to side with a cartel. Extortion is one of the cruelest crimes because the poor work hard, to have to give their earnings to the thugs. The first step in change is making people aware of this. I admire how you put yourself at risk to get the Truth out. When that SUV blocked you in, I can imagine you wondered if they would pull you all out of the vehicle. Meaningful, Breathtaking Journalism. Stay Safe!
Thanks much there Bobby X. Yeah, I had been wanting to get down to Chiapas to find out what was happening for a while. I was actually surprised the New York Times or Washington Post didn't beat me to it - but it shows there is space for these uncovered stories for true independent journalism. Have a great Christmas break there friend and lets get in gear for a big one for 2024.