An excellent road map to where Mexico stands now but if the criminality increases and the government falters into further corruption and incompetence, Mexico could become similar to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and to a lesser extent Lebanon. The DRC with it's wretched political history and outside colonial and CIA involvement has devolved into a patchwork of former political armies now operating as vicious criminal gangs. The government is totally useless and corrupt. Lebanon is still a country operating with different religious and political organizations but at times residents would see no difference between political and criminal actions. As difficult it would be to overcome the cartel criminal activity in Mexico, if those organizations were infused with a guiding path of political ideology, like the example you gave of the Shining Path or the IRA, then the situation in Mexico would be even more dire. Mexico's Dirty War in the 1960's and 1970's was a war of revolution with the United States assisting the Mexican government in battling left wing student groups who tried to turn into a revolutionary movement. The United States was already reeling from the Tet Offensive in Vietnam and then a student protest in France evolved into a street revolution almost toppling the government of DeGaulle. There was no way that the United States wanted a left wing revolution being successful in Mexico and uniting with the student revolution in the United States. Imagine the student groups in Mexico then, if they had the military weapons and training the CJNG has now. The United States would have invaded Mexico with troops.
Mexican cartels are virtually devoid of political ideas and aspirations. That makes the solution to their criminal activity easier then battling political concepts that can harden populations into a very long deadly conflict. Tijuana's solution is urban troop and police actions a'la Bukele and Leyzaola but if the cartels become politically radicalized and eliminate actions that cripple the local population like shakedowns then Mexico's crime problem could seriously become a deadly revolution especially if the United States takes any military action against the cartels. Look what happened with Pablo Escobar with his neighborhood brand of populism which he expanded to a narco populist attack on Colombia's government.
Thanks as always for your great insights and points there Tom. The comparisons to Africa are fascinating and I would love one day to get a better sense of what is really going in places like the DRC. I think one advantage Mexico has over countries such as Lebanon is a solid sense of national identity despite all the madness. The point that revolutionary guerrilla groups in Mexico were only a fraction of the cartels in terms of arms and fighting is one that always gets me. Yeah, I think the Bukele influence is going to be big for some years to come in LAtin America, but let's see how it looks in Mexico, with such powerful cartels. I haven't heard any new ideas from Claudia Sheinbaum, who looks to win the presidency, but let's see. Best there.
The Democratic Republic of Congo is the real tragedy of Africa and it's destruction by it's former colonial power Belgium and the interference by the United States and the CIA destroyed its future for at least 65 years and more counting. The true philosophical and ideological heart of Africa was Patrice Lumumba who was assassinated by colonial backed rebels directed by the CIA in 1961.
I was raised in a family that encouraged newspaper reading even when I just learned how to read especially by my grandmother who was an Anabaptist and a member of the I.W.W. which was an anarchist union at it's peak around World War I. I was absolutely fascinated by the story of Lumumba and his murder and the whole political struggle in Algeria and Algiers at the time. Two superb movies which are still available are Lumumba and Battle of Algiers which are the best introductions to the conflicts in those countries then.
As a sad note, Lebanon at one time did have a national identity aligned with the French and was considered the vacation spot and the Middle East Riviera. All of it destroyed by religious sectarianism armed to the teeth. Mexico's national identity could be destroyed in this turmoil particularly with the rise of Claudia Sheinbaum who I think represents more of a global political opportunist then a Mexican nationalist and is the United States choice for Mexico. What ideas she has expressed and her past connections makes me fearful she is a globalist technocrat.
It sounds like you have a very interesting story there Tom going back to the IWW - a rich inheritance. The murder of Lumumba also seems an interesting and pivotal moment. Looking back to those times there seems more moral clarity than than the hall of mirrors today, but then it was probably more complex. I still have faith in Mexico and its people though, but lets see. Un abrazo y buen fin de.
A big point of optimism is that from looking at history the true enemies, the real shadows in those mirrors to confuse us can be tracked to today. The dots can really still be connected.
How is this different from the Taliban or AQ in Iraq or ISIS? Violence, power and narco profits are the raison d’etre of the aforementioned and Mexican cartel. Calling what’s happening in Mexico merely “a crime problem” is willfully obtuse. It looks and acts and operates like an insurgency.
Thanks for the comment there Marine E-7. I totally agree it is not a mere crime problem and the subtitle of my first book was "Inside Mexico's Criminal Insurgency." However, I still think it is different from the Taliban as the cartels are disparate non-ideological groups. The way the cartels exercise control is different and the way they operate and think. A lot of my work over the last two decades has been trying to make sense of these groups in Mexico and across Latin America that go way beyond crime but don't fit into a scheme like Islamic of Communist revolutionaries. This essay here tries to put some thinking on this and the idea there is a duopoly of power between the cartels and the government makes sense to me. Great to have your voice here and all best there.
It strikes me that cartels and terror organizations like the Taliban and ISIS are far more similar than not. Any differences among them like ideology or religion are really differences without distinction.
ISIS and the Taliban will gladly and gratefully work with non allied/non aligned partners to achieve a goal. Religiosity is merely a thin veneer used by terrorists to justify their barbarism. Terror groups, just like cartels, care about three things: power, money, weapons.
At the end of the day I see what’s happening in Mexico as a slow rolling version of AFG: limited governmental control over the countryside, endemic corruption of civic agencies, the military and law enforcement, generational violence, moral relativism and limitless murder. I fear for the future of Mexico and ours, too.
Oddly enough, it’s the bastardization of religion that those loathsome groups have in common. The narco animals seem to love “La Santa Muerte,” which is a made up malevolent patron saint of criminals and killers while all the jihadists pretend to adhere to a bizarre 14th century version of Islam that is more fiction than fact.
Sorry about the screed but I fear for the future of Mexico. I can envision a future where our largest trading partner is simultaneously a growing industrial power and a violent failed state with only the appearance of governance and civilization.
Thanks Marine and no apologies for a screed. We love deep convo here - it's where we can escape from twitter. This line is particularly nice. "simultaneously a growing industrial power and a violent failed state with only the appearance of governance and civilization." - Yes, I have been worried and fascinated by the cartel uprising for years. In some places that is already a reality but Mexico also manages to somehow keep it together in other aspects. I certainly think the veneration of La Santa Muerte is a bad thing and people use it to justify evil acts. And agreed, there are certainly plenty of similarities between say Taliban and cartels as insurgents - the difference comes a bit more perhaps when we see how the Taliban are running the country. More on all of this to come friend.
Hey, Ioan. Was listening to Preston Stewart’s Substack piece about how Hezboallah is present and active all over Mexico, Central and South America. Seems Interpol issued a red notice in April seeking to arrest a ranking member of the terror group believed to be somewhere in the Spanish speaking world.
I thought I learned in the Corps how to embrace the suck but this scenario seems too big and terrifying for such platitudes.
Sure there Marine. There are new developments but this is an ongoing and real issue - although also sometimes misrepresented. I wrote this piece a while back on the subject. I was thinking of updating at some point with some new developments. https://www.crashoutmedia.com/p/islamic-terrorists-on-the-rio-grande
My interviews with Mexicans seeking asylum indicate that in at least some rural counties/communities, the teachers are no longer coming, and the electricity has been turned off, or is off and on. And the petrol tankers don't come anymore either, because the last few times they came they got set on fire. This is not the norm, but it is happening. The most recent communities where this was reported are on the border of Apatzingan and Aguililla.
Dear Marti, Great to hear your voice here and thanks for the support. The asylum seekers as well as going through very difficult times are treasure troves of information about these front line places and what is happening there. That is worrying about those rural communities in Michoacan - that is really in the heart of the war. Please keep in touch and all best there.
Another great piece of writing. I just finished Blood Gun Money. I started it and couldn’t put it down. Brilliant. I’ll go to Amazon and give it a review. Thanks.
That's fantastic Daniel and means loads to me. I am working on my book number four at the moment, but it won't be done and out for a cuppla years. I'll try and up the game some more. Anyway, all best friend and well appreciated.
Great, Smart, Thought Provoking Journalism. I think the Duopoloy exists because neither side has the desire to take the hard choices to end it. Sadly, in the meantime, the poor suffer. I think the key is the United States. The Border Problem and the Mexican Security problem can be mutually diminished . The US has the Money and weapons. Do both countries have the will?
An excellent road map to where Mexico stands now but if the criminality increases and the government falters into further corruption and incompetence, Mexico could become similar to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and to a lesser extent Lebanon. The DRC with it's wretched political history and outside colonial and CIA involvement has devolved into a patchwork of former political armies now operating as vicious criminal gangs. The government is totally useless and corrupt. Lebanon is still a country operating with different religious and political organizations but at times residents would see no difference between political and criminal actions. As difficult it would be to overcome the cartel criminal activity in Mexico, if those organizations were infused with a guiding path of political ideology, like the example you gave of the Shining Path or the IRA, then the situation in Mexico would be even more dire. Mexico's Dirty War in the 1960's and 1970's was a war of revolution with the United States assisting the Mexican government in battling left wing student groups who tried to turn into a revolutionary movement. The United States was already reeling from the Tet Offensive in Vietnam and then a student protest in France evolved into a street revolution almost toppling the government of DeGaulle. There was no way that the United States wanted a left wing revolution being successful in Mexico and uniting with the student revolution in the United States. Imagine the student groups in Mexico then, if they had the military weapons and training the CJNG has now. The United States would have invaded Mexico with troops.
Mexican cartels are virtually devoid of political ideas and aspirations. That makes the solution to their criminal activity easier then battling political concepts that can harden populations into a very long deadly conflict. Tijuana's solution is urban troop and police actions a'la Bukele and Leyzaola but if the cartels become politically radicalized and eliminate actions that cripple the local population like shakedowns then Mexico's crime problem could seriously become a deadly revolution especially if the United States takes any military action against the cartels. Look what happened with Pablo Escobar with his neighborhood brand of populism which he expanded to a narco populist attack on Colombia's government.
Thanks as always for your great insights and points there Tom. The comparisons to Africa are fascinating and I would love one day to get a better sense of what is really going in places like the DRC. I think one advantage Mexico has over countries such as Lebanon is a solid sense of national identity despite all the madness. The point that revolutionary guerrilla groups in Mexico were only a fraction of the cartels in terms of arms and fighting is one that always gets me. Yeah, I think the Bukele influence is going to be big for some years to come in LAtin America, but let's see how it looks in Mexico, with such powerful cartels. I haven't heard any new ideas from Claudia Sheinbaum, who looks to win the presidency, but let's see. Best there.
The Democratic Republic of Congo is the real tragedy of Africa and it's destruction by it's former colonial power Belgium and the interference by the United States and the CIA destroyed its future for at least 65 years and more counting. The true philosophical and ideological heart of Africa was Patrice Lumumba who was assassinated by colonial backed rebels directed by the CIA in 1961.
I was raised in a family that encouraged newspaper reading even when I just learned how to read especially by my grandmother who was an Anabaptist and a member of the I.W.W. which was an anarchist union at it's peak around World War I. I was absolutely fascinated by the story of Lumumba and his murder and the whole political struggle in Algeria and Algiers at the time. Two superb movies which are still available are Lumumba and Battle of Algiers which are the best introductions to the conflicts in those countries then.
As a sad note, Lebanon at one time did have a national identity aligned with the French and was considered the vacation spot and the Middle East Riviera. All of it destroyed by religious sectarianism armed to the teeth. Mexico's national identity could be destroyed in this turmoil particularly with the rise of Claudia Sheinbaum who I think represents more of a global political opportunist then a Mexican nationalist and is the United States choice for Mexico. What ideas she has expressed and her past connections makes me fearful she is a globalist technocrat.
It sounds like you have a very interesting story there Tom going back to the IWW - a rich inheritance. The murder of Lumumba also seems an interesting and pivotal moment. Looking back to those times there seems more moral clarity than than the hall of mirrors today, but then it was probably more complex. I still have faith in Mexico and its people though, but lets see. Un abrazo y buen fin de.
A big point of optimism is that from looking at history the true enemies, the real shadows in those mirrors to confuse us can be tracked to today. The dots can really still be connected.
How is this different from the Taliban or AQ in Iraq or ISIS? Violence, power and narco profits are the raison d’etre of the aforementioned and Mexican cartel. Calling what’s happening in Mexico merely “a crime problem” is willfully obtuse. It looks and acts and operates like an insurgency.
Thanks for the comment there Marine E-7. I totally agree it is not a mere crime problem and the subtitle of my first book was "Inside Mexico's Criminal Insurgency." However, I still think it is different from the Taliban as the cartels are disparate non-ideological groups. The way the cartels exercise control is different and the way they operate and think. A lot of my work over the last two decades has been trying to make sense of these groups in Mexico and across Latin America that go way beyond crime but don't fit into a scheme like Islamic of Communist revolutionaries. This essay here tries to put some thinking on this and the idea there is a duopoly of power between the cartels and the government makes sense to me. Great to have your voice here and all best there.
It strikes me that cartels and terror organizations like the Taliban and ISIS are far more similar than not. Any differences among them like ideology or religion are really differences without distinction.
ISIS and the Taliban will gladly and gratefully work with non allied/non aligned partners to achieve a goal. Religiosity is merely a thin veneer used by terrorists to justify their barbarism. Terror groups, just like cartels, care about three things: power, money, weapons.
At the end of the day I see what’s happening in Mexico as a slow rolling version of AFG: limited governmental control over the countryside, endemic corruption of civic agencies, the military and law enforcement, generational violence, moral relativism and limitless murder. I fear for the future of Mexico and ours, too.
Oddly enough, it’s the bastardization of religion that those loathsome groups have in common. The narco animals seem to love “La Santa Muerte,” which is a made up malevolent patron saint of criminals and killers while all the jihadists pretend to adhere to a bizarre 14th century version of Islam that is more fiction than fact.
Sorry about the screed but I fear for the future of Mexico. I can envision a future where our largest trading partner is simultaneously a growing industrial power and a violent failed state with only the appearance of governance and civilization.
Thanks Marine and no apologies for a screed. We love deep convo here - it's where we can escape from twitter. This line is particularly nice. "simultaneously a growing industrial power and a violent failed state with only the appearance of governance and civilization." - Yes, I have been worried and fascinated by the cartel uprising for years. In some places that is already a reality but Mexico also manages to somehow keep it together in other aspects. I certainly think the veneration of La Santa Muerte is a bad thing and people use it to justify evil acts. And agreed, there are certainly plenty of similarities between say Taliban and cartels as insurgents - the difference comes a bit more perhaps when we see how the Taliban are running the country. More on all of this to come friend.
Hey, Ioan. Was listening to Preston Stewart’s Substack piece about how Hezboallah is present and active all over Mexico, Central and South America. Seems Interpol issued a red notice in April seeking to arrest a ranking member of the terror group believed to be somewhere in the Spanish speaking world.
I thought I learned in the Corps how to embrace the suck but this scenario seems too big and terrifying for such platitudes.
Sure there Marine. There are new developments but this is an ongoing and real issue - although also sometimes misrepresented. I wrote this piece a while back on the subject. I was thinking of updating at some point with some new developments. https://www.crashoutmedia.com/p/islamic-terrorists-on-the-rio-grande
My interviews with Mexicans seeking asylum indicate that in at least some rural counties/communities, the teachers are no longer coming, and the electricity has been turned off, or is off and on. And the petrol tankers don't come anymore either, because the last few times they came they got set on fire. This is not the norm, but it is happening. The most recent communities where this was reported are on the border of Apatzingan and Aguililla.
Dear Marti, Great to hear your voice here and thanks for the support. The asylum seekers as well as going through very difficult times are treasure troves of information about these front line places and what is happening there. That is worrying about those rural communities in Michoacan - that is really in the heart of the war. Please keep in touch and all best there.
Love your work thank you.
Well appreciated and back at yer Paul. Good to hear voice here and thanks for the support.
Another great piece of writing. I just finished Blood Gun Money. I started it and couldn’t put it down. Brilliant. I’ll go to Amazon and give it a review. Thanks.
That's fantastic Daniel and means loads to me. I am working on my book number four at the moment, but it won't be done and out for a cuppla years. I'll try and up the game some more. Anyway, all best friend and well appreciated.
Brilliant work as always, IOAN.
Thanks much for reading and your support and voice are well appreciated here.
Great, Smart, Thought Provoking Journalism. I think the Duopoloy exists because neither side has the desire to take the hard choices to end it. Sadly, in the meantime, the poor suffer. I think the key is the United States. The Border Problem and the Mexican Security problem can be mutually diminished . The US has the Money and weapons. Do both countries have the will?