Jul 2, 2023·edited Jul 2, 2023Liked by Ioan Grillo
Mexico is not only a narco state it is a failed state. This is the result of deliberate US policies carried out by the CIA to support the drug cartels and stymie Mexico's legitimate economy. I am beginning to wonder if the US too is a failed state. The corruption is so immense. You report it and it just gets ignored.
With this new evidence coming to light, do you think the US will adjust or change things when it comes to working together with Mexican government and military against drug cartels? Does Mexico lose all credibility when it comes to the arrests of drug lords and drug seizures? Also, this puts in question whether the capture of Ovidio was just a smoke screen in order to protect bigger fish.
Yes, I think it will make US agents more cautious about working Mexican agents and vice versa at an operational level. However, I dont think it will change the US bigger strategy right away as they dont have another clear one. Best Fernando.
For people in México is worrie to be in a state ruled by Narco, the example in Zacatecas a town of México who is in the center of country is the perfect example of What is going to be in the future, one Nicaragua and Colombia, or even Venezuela is What we are goint to see in our backyard, the president AMLO (Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador) is a danger for the people in the united States and for México people, no one likes him, is a Narco president and all mexicans are sufering, me included
Hi there Antonio. Thanks much for the comments. Yes, indeed it is scary seeing Zacatecas and what future that could show. However, I think some places get really bad and then have managed to bounce back again, like say Coahuila. I guess I want to look for hope. But certainly, this narco war has a long way to go yet. All best there friend.
Thanks really need to show the true here, every body made our lilfes like if nothing hapend, but every day we hear or see in difrent platforms the news about kill in every place near of our homes, i want o share for an example this facebook link, the web page is one of many who publish news about crime here in Zacatecas:
Do you know why the Luna case mostly focuses on cocaine instead meth or heroin? Is it because it focuses mostly on the CDMX airport, where cocaine was flown in, vs. meth and heroin which are produced locally?
Very good point. It focuses on certain drug lords (Beltran Leyva and Mayo Zambada) who were big into coke, at a certain time (especially early to mid 00s) when coke was the thing, and as you point out, certain areas (Morelos and Mexico City) where coke was moved through. That's what they got him on. Best Christopher.
I’ve just finished your book and wanted to let you know my thoughts.
First of all I thought the book was really really good. Such and interesting book, covering a very complicated issue and making it really easy to understand.
I love reading your stuff, because you have this ability to break down a very complex subject through the stories of people on the ground which are so insightful, sad, funny, entertaining and shocking. At times through the book, I laughed out loud at some of the descriptions and anecdotal stories. At other times, I really felt the sadness and despair of people subject to the violence and terror of their everyday life.
To be honest if I was to go off and do some background reading on this subject, I would likely struggle to get through it, but the way you write is very entertaining.
On the subject itself, being English myself I think the second amendment is a complicated subject and I don’t have a particular strong position on whether it should exist or not.
But for me reading the book and following the stuff you write, as well as watching a few documentaries, one on which on Netflix had your contact from Turbo, Oliver Schmeig. It is clear how big a part guns play in the destruction of so many countries in Central and South America as well as globally (Stating the obvious I know). The stories of tragedy and mass murder by local gangs or groups, causing people to flee their homes and their country that they would otherwise have no ambition to leave, really hit home.
From a US standpoint I think this issue should be a big concern, in terms of national- security as seen through incidents where US agents or citizens have been murdered. Illegally trafficked firearms are arming militias and groups that’s economic model is dependent on contravening US laws and fuelling the drug trade that is causing countless issues within the US itself.
It strikes me as you have basically outlined in the book, that there needs be stronger regulation and harsher sentences for straw buyers. The idea you can buy a gun and sell it under the ‘private sale’ loophole to someone who would not be allowed a gun- to me as an outsider seems insane. Especially when considering the scale of violence and de-stabilisation across so many countries which illegal gun trafficking significantly contributes to. I also think taking a harder stance on this is achievable and does not overly infringe on the second amendment.
What really surprised me reading your book, was the low- margins involved in the legal gun-trade. This is not something I would have guessed, but most certainly provides a good explanation of the ‘motivations’ of rogue dealers and in some cases- as in Germany- gun companies themselves to turn a blind- eye and play an active role in this issue.
Sorry to write so much, I really enjoyed your book. I look forward to continue reading your stuff.
Thanks so much for reading Adam and stoked you liked it. Those are some great observations. Keep in touch and keep in the conversation friend. All best there.
Calling Mexico a Narcostate is inaccurate because the endemic corruption transcends Drug Cartels. La Mordida is an issue regardless of how powerful cartels are in an area. This means most crime will be hard to solve. Police and the Judicial system are extremely compromised. It's no disrespect to honest Mexicans to call the system out. The election cycle are extremely violent. Over 150 killed in election related homicides 2018. Many optimistic young and honest aspiring politicians had their dreams of transparency and progress smashed. I don't know what it will take but something radical must happen for the rule of law to prevail in Mexico. NAFTA was successful because it set up an independent court system. International Businesses are routinely extorted throughout mexico nonetheless.
Yes, it's a deep and troubling issue. In some ways, as Alan Riding points out in "Distant Neighbors," corruption is the oil and glue that keeps the machinery of Mexican government running. You need a service, you pay a bribe. Money goes up like gas and power flows down like water. But narco corruption makes that same system extremely violent. Best there Stochastic Optimism.
A helpful and timely piece Ioan -- thank you! I especially value your comments on why we would want to avoid labelling (and dismissing, or damning) Mexico as a "narco state"
Thanks much Barbara, hope all is well. Yes, I have mixed thoughts on it as I write. We do need to understand the state capture but not take away legitimacy from the whole apparatus - or burn down the whole forest. All best there.
Great piece. Question, do you think the lack of physical evidence hurts the case? A lot of mexican people are quite cinical and relying so much on criminals testimony (here I hear "creer en la palabra de narcos"), can hurt the impact of the ruling?
The claims are so massive that they must have some physical evidence (accounts, money transfers, written documents, texts, etc) right?
Hi Alejandro, Sure the lack of physical evidence hurt the case to some extent. However, they still got the prosecution pretty fast - so I think there is a precedent that they can go after corruption cases on testimony alone. If they had done with a slam dunk though it would make them more aggressive in such cases. Best Alejandro.
Great Stuff as always Ioan. I appreciate you trying to differentiate the Mexican People from the Mexican Government. A small group of powerful people does NOT represent a nation. I felt this way when Trump was President. That his stain of a Presidency might make people around the World that All Americans were supportive of Trump. I think what is very telling is that there was a conviction in this case, but General Cienfuegos was set free, after an official request by the Mexican Government. I think as you profoundly state, people that want change in Mexico must nurture the healthy plants, while exposing the rot to the warm sunlight of Progress. Keep up the meaningful work.
Thanks much Bobby. Yes, it's always in my mind that difference - and when I cover cartels to try not to make this reflect on the whole country and people. The trial and conviction are positive, although it doesn't feel that way too much. But hey, we gotta keep pushing, or hoping, for better days. Best there friend.
Good column, Ioan. I heard some interesting commentary on NPR from someone who works at Propublica. This may be out of order since I am doing this from memory.
The Judge in the case carefully kept out evidence of Garcia Luna's wealth when he came to Miami.
The testimony against Calderon was vague, but he'll be called to answer about what he knew. He hired him and kept him for his entire admin.
Suspicions about Garcia Luna's corruption among US intel and LE agencies first arose in 2008, but they did not investigate it.
That Garcia Luna operated for so long under the radar is a failure of US intelligence.
I think that there all that is. If remember something else, I let you know. You can also listen to interview on NPR's afternoon broadcast today on "All things considered".
Thanks Jeff. Yes, the U.S. agencies working with Garcia Luna was a big deal, and they got off lightly in the trial. There was info against Garcia Luna going back to 2012. To be fair, it was a hard case to prosecute even now so I can see why prosecutors were cautious. Best there friend.
Felipe Calderon should fear a possible testimony from Edgar Valdez Villarreal “Barbie” he is a US citizen and wrote a letter in 2012 claiming that Felipe Calderon was part of the conspiracy to trafficking drugs to the US.
Yes, I think Felipe Calderon is fearing a lot of things. I don't think myself the U.S. prosecutors will go after him though they I could be wrong. In Mexico I am not so sure. Best there.
I think so. They have the case of former Honduran president coming up as well to keep on it right away. It could discourage Mexico-U.S. cooperation though.
Mexico is not only a narco state it is a failed state. This is the result of deliberate US policies carried out by the CIA to support the drug cartels and stymie Mexico's legitimate economy. I am beginning to wonder if the US too is a failed state. The corruption is so immense. You report it and it just gets ignored.
Thankd Karen. More on the CIA to come. Best there.
With this new evidence coming to light, do you think the US will adjust or change things when it comes to working together with Mexican government and military against drug cartels? Does Mexico lose all credibility when it comes to the arrests of drug lords and drug seizures? Also, this puts in question whether the capture of Ovidio was just a smoke screen in order to protect bigger fish.
Saludos Ioan!
Yes, I think it will make US agents more cautious about working Mexican agents and vice versa at an operational level. However, I dont think it will change the US bigger strategy right away as they dont have another clear one. Best Fernando.
For people in México is worrie to be in a state ruled by Narco, the example in Zacatecas a town of México who is in the center of country is the perfect example of What is going to be in the future, one Nicaragua and Colombia, or even Venezuela is What we are goint to see in our backyard, the president AMLO (Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador) is a danger for the people in the united States and for México people, no one likes him, is a Narco president and all mexicans are sufering, me included
Hi there Antonio. Thanks much for the comments. Yes, indeed it is scary seeing Zacatecas and what future that could show. However, I think some places get really bad and then have managed to bounce back again, like say Coahuila. I guess I want to look for hope. But certainly, this narco war has a long way to go yet. All best there friend.
Thanks really need to show the true here, every body made our lilfes like if nothing hapend, but every day we hear or see in difrent platforms the news about kill in every place near of our homes, i want o share for an example this facebook link, the web page is one of many who publish news about crime here in Zacatecas:
https://www.facebook.com/100063492187663/videos/285589167280195/?sfnsn=scwspmo&mibextid=l2pjGR
this one is from people kidnaped
https://www.facebook.com/groups/zacatecasalminuto/permalink/1224681811523740/?sfnsn=scwspmo&ref=share&mibextid=KtfwRi
Thanks there Antonio. Yes, Zacatecas is a real hotspot. I hope to have more from there soon. Best.
Do you know why the Luna case mostly focuses on cocaine instead meth or heroin? Is it because it focuses mostly on the CDMX airport, where cocaine was flown in, vs. meth and heroin which are produced locally?
Very good point. It focuses on certain drug lords (Beltran Leyva and Mayo Zambada) who were big into coke, at a certain time (especially early to mid 00s) when coke was the thing, and as you point out, certain areas (Morelos and Mexico City) where coke was moved through. That's what they got him on. Best Christopher.
Great piece and read! I think that's a great analogy regarding weed and different trees in the forest and the fact that there is hope.
It is scary the impact of cartels on some of these important institutions as you have outlined in this criminal case.
On a separate note I am currently reading your book Blood Gun Money. Its incredible, so interesting. I can't put it down!
Indeed scary. Thanks so much for reading. It would be great to know your reflections on it when you are done. Best Adam.
For sure! Will message back once I have finished.
Hi Ioan,
I’ve just finished your book and wanted to let you know my thoughts.
First of all I thought the book was really really good. Such and interesting book, covering a very complicated issue and making it really easy to understand.
I love reading your stuff, because you have this ability to break down a very complex subject through the stories of people on the ground which are so insightful, sad, funny, entertaining and shocking. At times through the book, I laughed out loud at some of the descriptions and anecdotal stories. At other times, I really felt the sadness and despair of people subject to the violence and terror of their everyday life.
To be honest if I was to go off and do some background reading on this subject, I would likely struggle to get through it, but the way you write is very entertaining.
On the subject itself, being English myself I think the second amendment is a complicated subject and I don’t have a particular strong position on whether it should exist or not.
But for me reading the book and following the stuff you write, as well as watching a few documentaries, one on which on Netflix had your contact from Turbo, Oliver Schmeig. It is clear how big a part guns play in the destruction of so many countries in Central and South America as well as globally (Stating the obvious I know). The stories of tragedy and mass murder by local gangs or groups, causing people to flee their homes and their country that they would otherwise have no ambition to leave, really hit home.
From a US standpoint I think this issue should be a big concern, in terms of national- security as seen through incidents where US agents or citizens have been murdered. Illegally trafficked firearms are arming militias and groups that’s economic model is dependent on contravening US laws and fuelling the drug trade that is causing countless issues within the US itself.
It strikes me as you have basically outlined in the book, that there needs be stronger regulation and harsher sentences for straw buyers. The idea you can buy a gun and sell it under the ‘private sale’ loophole to someone who would not be allowed a gun- to me as an outsider seems insane. Especially when considering the scale of violence and de-stabilisation across so many countries which illegal gun trafficking significantly contributes to. I also think taking a harder stance on this is achievable and does not overly infringe on the second amendment.
What really surprised me reading your book, was the low- margins involved in the legal gun-trade. This is not something I would have guessed, but most certainly provides a good explanation of the ‘motivations’ of rogue dealers and in some cases- as in Germany- gun companies themselves to turn a blind- eye and play an active role in this issue.
Sorry to write so much, I really enjoyed your book. I look forward to continue reading your stuff.
Thanks so much for reading Adam and stoked you liked it. Those are some great observations. Keep in touch and keep in the conversation friend. All best there.
Calling Mexico a Narcostate is inaccurate because the endemic corruption transcends Drug Cartels. La Mordida is an issue regardless of how powerful cartels are in an area. This means most crime will be hard to solve. Police and the Judicial system are extremely compromised. It's no disrespect to honest Mexicans to call the system out. The election cycle are extremely violent. Over 150 killed in election related homicides 2018. Many optimistic young and honest aspiring politicians had their dreams of transparency and progress smashed. I don't know what it will take but something radical must happen for the rule of law to prevail in Mexico. NAFTA was successful because it set up an independent court system. International Businesses are routinely extorted throughout mexico nonetheless.
Yes, it's a deep and troubling issue. In some ways, as Alan Riding points out in "Distant Neighbors," corruption is the oil and glue that keeps the machinery of Mexican government running. You need a service, you pay a bribe. Money goes up like gas and power flows down like water. But narco corruption makes that same system extremely violent. Best there Stochastic Optimism.
A helpful and timely piece Ioan -- thank you! I especially value your comments on why we would want to avoid labelling (and dismissing, or damning) Mexico as a "narco state"
Thanks much Barbara, hope all is well. Yes, I have mixed thoughts on it as I write. We do need to understand the state capture but not take away legitimacy from the whole apparatus - or burn down the whole forest. All best there.
Great piece. Question, do you think the lack of physical evidence hurts the case? A lot of mexican people are quite cinical and relying so much on criminals testimony (here I hear "creer en la palabra de narcos"), can hurt the impact of the ruling?
The claims are so massive that they must have some physical evidence (accounts, money transfers, written documents, texts, etc) right?
Hi Alejandro, Sure the lack of physical evidence hurt the case to some extent. However, they still got the prosecution pretty fast - so I think there is a precedent that they can go after corruption cases on testimony alone. If they had done with a slam dunk though it would make them more aggressive in such cases. Best Alejandro.
Great Stuff as always Ioan. I appreciate you trying to differentiate the Mexican People from the Mexican Government. A small group of powerful people does NOT represent a nation. I felt this way when Trump was President. That his stain of a Presidency might make people around the World that All Americans were supportive of Trump. I think what is very telling is that there was a conviction in this case, but General Cienfuegos was set free, after an official request by the Mexican Government. I think as you profoundly state, people that want change in Mexico must nurture the healthy plants, while exposing the rot to the warm sunlight of Progress. Keep up the meaningful work.
Thanks much Bobby. Yes, it's always in my mind that difference - and when I cover cartels to try not to make this reflect on the whole country and people. The trial and conviction are positive, although it doesn't feel that way too much. But hey, we gotta keep pushing, or hoping, for better days. Best there friend.
Good column, Ioan. I heard some interesting commentary on NPR from someone who works at Propublica. This may be out of order since I am doing this from memory.
The Judge in the case carefully kept out evidence of Garcia Luna's wealth when he came to Miami.
The testimony against Calderon was vague, but he'll be called to answer about what he knew. He hired him and kept him for his entire admin.
Suspicions about Garcia Luna's corruption among US intel and LE agencies first arose in 2008, but they did not investigate it.
That Garcia Luna operated for so long under the radar is a failure of US intelligence.
I think that there all that is. If remember something else, I let you know. You can also listen to interview on NPR's afternoon broadcast today on "All things considered".
Thanks Jeff. Yes, the U.S. agencies working with Garcia Luna was a big deal, and they got off lightly in the trial. There was info against Garcia Luna going back to 2012. To be fair, it was a hard case to prosecute even now so I can see why prosecutors were cautious. Best there friend.
The president of México must to be stoped soon, before the power of drugs cartel invade the test of our countrys
Felipe Calderon should fear a possible testimony from Edgar Valdez Villarreal “Barbie” he is a US citizen and wrote a letter in 2012 claiming that Felipe Calderon was part of the conspiracy to trafficking drugs to the US.
Yes, I think Felipe Calderon is fearing a lot of things. I don't think myself the U.S. prosecutors will go after him though they I could be wrong. In Mexico I am not so sure. Best there.
You called it on twitter last week guilty on all charges, great article.
Thanks Mr Yellow. Yes, the force of U.S. federal prosecutors is a hard one to go against. Big ruling!
Now they his conviction do you think it will encourage the federal prosecutors to go after more like him?
I think so. They have the case of former Honduran president coming up as well to keep on it right away. It could discourage Mexico-U.S. cooperation though.