Ten Big Drug War Stories Of 2025

And a Christmas shout to subscribers

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The year 2025 has been an intense time in politics to put it mildly, and a significant part of it is linked to the milieu of the drug war, or rather the sprawling complex of narco trafficking, substance addiction, paramilitary organized crime, gangster corruption and varying government responses to it all. Here at CrashOut, myself and the contributors endeavor to cover these historic events in a non-partisan way, digging up the truth and forming a clear-eyed analysis.

While this era we find ourselves living in can be confusing, frustrating and frightening, it’s thrilling to watch history unwind. The future is not yet written so let’s see where this journey takes us.

To take stock of what happened in 2025 and what it means, here are ten big drug war stories. While I focus on the U.S.-Mexico sphere of the drug and crime conflicts, there are also stories highlighted, and coverage at CrashOut, on events from the Philippines to Brazil to Marseilles.

Before I get deep into the list, my earnest shout to subscribers. Those of you who support CrashOut with paid subs are not only the most informed folks in the room on these topics but you are helping this corner of the info-sphere to create some real journalism on crucial subjects. You can enjoy your Christmas food and drinks, knowing how amazing you are.

For the many who read the freebies, I love you all as well. Yet you can consider that to work as narco journalists we have made our peace to do high risk stories, but we do need gas to start the car. So in the throes of that Christmas spirit and generosity (and perhaps if you have had a mince pie and glass of bubbly) why not make those couple of clicks and BOOM, you are a valued member of the CrashOut community.

Now onto to the top ten.

1. Trump declares cartels as foreign terrorists

   Love him or despise him, President Donald Trump was the defining political figure of 2025, including in the drug war. His announcement when he took power on Jan. 20 that he would designate drug cartels and gangs as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, or FTO’s, set up the conflicts of the year, especially with relation to Mexico and Venezuela. Perhaps, it was the biggest change to the drug war in decades, although we still need to see how it plays out.

2. Sheinbaum cracks down

   The Sheinbaum-Trump relationship could have been one of conflict, and unilateral U.S. military strikes inside Mexico in 2025 were a real possibility. However, President Claudia Sheinbaum managed to placate Trump by doing three main things when it came to security: transferring over 50 (alleged or convicted) top cartel operators into U.S. custody; cratering migrant smuggling; and reducing fentanyl. Overall, she took the Trump heat away from Mexico and it went to Venezuela, although as these numbers show, fentanyl has been creeping back now while nobody is watching.

   

3. U.S. overdose deaths fall

   The fall in U.S. overdose deaths was first registered in late 2024, looking at data going back to 2023. But now it’s clear it has been declining steadily since a peak in August 2023. As I write here, there are various factors behind it, including use of Narcan, dealers changing the mix, and less addicts left to die. And the yearly number of overdose deaths is still incredibly high (about 77,000) in the last count. Yet this reduction is still overall good news (there is some).

   

4. Duterte is imprisoned by the Hague

   On March 11, police in the Philippines acted on an international arrest warrant and nabbed former president Rodrigo Duterte, bundling him on a plane and flying him to the Netherlands. He is now imprisoned by the International Criminal Court facing charges of crimes against humanity for his war on drugs from 2016 to 2022 (and for before while he was mayor of Davao). It’s a huge case for 2026 that gets into tough issues of international law, populism and extra judicial killings. You can read about my own interviews with Duterte here.

   

5. The Narco plea deals

   Top narcos from Mexico made a series of plea agreements in the United States, including the Chapitos, Ovidio and Joaquín Jr (in July and November) and the mero mero Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada (in August). Their guilty pleas confirm the story of the Mayo kidnapping in 2024 and saved the U.S. tax payers millions to fund their court cases. But they also raised questions about giving sweet heart deals to major traffickers, including of fentanyl.

   

6. The Rio massacre

   In October, police in Rio de Janeiro killed at least 117 suspected members of the Red Commando drug gang in a favela (slum) and four police died - the deadliest police raid in Brazilian history. The officers shot most of the casualties in a woodland in what appeared to be a deliberate ambush and piled up corpses on the street. While it got global condemnation from human rights groups, the Rio governor Cláudio Castro called it a success and it appeared to boost his popularity.

7. Mexico’s extortion crisis

   While cartels in Mexico have taken some hits, they continue to ravage Mexican businesses with shakedowns, creating a “narco inflation” on goods like limes and avocados. The extortion grabbed national attention with the murder of Bernardo Bravo, leader of lime growers in Michoacán, and with the subsequent murder of mayor Carlos Manzo of avocado capital Uruapan, and also fueled trucker stoppages. Sheinbaum has got a hefty new anti-extortion law through Congress, yet we have to see if things change on the ground.

   

8. An assassination in Marseilles

   In November, a gunmen killed Mehdi Kessaci in Marseilles, France, who was the second brother to be murdered of drug war activist and political candidate Amine Kessaci. The shooting was emblematic of a new kind of gang warfare, mostly among youths of immigrant backgrounds, that is emerging from Sweden to London to Paris. Niko Vorobyov did this excellent piece in CrashOut with an interview with Amine Kessaci.

9. Sinaloa burns

   The civil war inside the Sinaloa Cartel continues to ravage the state claiming thousands of dead and disappeared. It’s the worst Sinaloans have ever had it, and we had here a stellar report on the ground from CrashOut’s Juan Alberto Cedillo. Unfortunately most of the world doesn’t seem to give a fxxx, and Sinaloa’s pain has made little international news. But in Sinaloa, the fighting rages on into Christmas.

10. The Venezuela almost war

    A war on Venezuela could prove the biggest story of all of these, but it hasn’t quite happened yet, and it is only partially related to the drug war. The U.S. military began shooting missiles at alleged drug boats on Sept. 2 and has currently sunk 28, killing 104 people, in both the Caribbean and Pacific. The attacks are part of a campaign to try and force Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro out of power and put in the opposition led by María Corina Machado, whose ally likely won the 2024 election before Maduro fixed it. Trump has openly said it’s also about oil and begun a blockade on sanctioned tankers. Many journalists in this region are watching nervously for a full on conflict to jump in to cover it.

    

    Subscriber Work

    CrashOut subscribers have written two new novels based on real events in Mexico and the cartel wars.

    The first is “Terco: A true story of love, ego and corruption” about a Brit being locked up in a Mexican prison, the nightmare for any traveler. I met the author at the Guadalajara book festival and from what I have read it’s fascinating. As he says: “This was revenge, yes – and an abuse of power. But as I reflected on what brought me to this dreadful place – a place where the infamous Mexican drug trafficker, ‘El Chapo’ Guzman, had escaped – I couldn’t help thinking it was my fault; that I had caused it all – the instincts and actions of a lifetime. Was it love or ego that had truly motivated me?” Find Terco here.

    The second is Transplant by Deborah Siminou, who worked in the U.S. foreign service in Latin America conducting financial investigations. As it says: “This gripping novel blends elements of FBI suspense, medical corruption, cartel crime fiction, and moral dilemmas in the fight for truth.” You can find Transplant here.

    

    Thanks and Happy Crimbo

    Big props to all the CrashOut contributors this year, including Omid Visua, Juan Alberto Cedillo, Teun Voeten, Katarina Szulc, Niko Vorobyov, Oliver Schmieg, Andrew Paxman, Patrick Winn, Denis Korotkov, Ilya Barabanovand, and Simeon Tegel. Equally big props to all those who spoke to us, on and off the record, even when it put them in danger. And a special thanks to all the top CrashOut commentators, including Daniel Helkenn, Joe Schmoo, Tom Johnston, The Gang World＠YUU, David Cashion, Gregorio, Francisco Arcaute, Stevie Abbott, Christopher O'loughlin, Mark McCarthy, Mar a Man, DC Reade, Diego MF, Lee Ann Flynn, Jackson R. Brooks, Jonathan Ramos, Michael E. Perez, Deana Holmes and the many more that I am sorry I didn’t mention.

    I hope you all get a chance to eat, drink and make merry, or chill out and read those books, or whatever you like to do in the festive period. I’ll still be filing some stories and videos over the next couple of weeks but trying to get into the spirits of Lupereyes. Happy Crimbo all.

    

    Copyright Ioan Grillo and CrashOut Media 2025