Mexico Murder Map 2024

Which places in Mexico are safer? Which are among the most violent in the world?

This is the third part of a series analyzing the geography of Mexico’s cartel war for 2024. In part one here, I look at the turf held by rival cartels. In part two here, I look at U.S. claims that cartels control a third of Mexican territory. In this piece, I identify the murder hot spots adding another dimension to understanding the conflict.

If Mexico’s Pacific state of Colima were a country it would compete to be the most homicidal on the planet with 124 murders per 100,000 people in 2023, according to preliminary numbers. Yet over on the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the state of Yucatan is a safe haven, with a murder rate of just 1.8 - lower than Canada or even Massachusetts.

A remarkable feature of Mexico’s cartel war, and general violence, is how unevenly the bloodshed is spread. There is a colossal body count, with over 400,000 murders since 2006, but it’s concentrated in certain states and cities. These hot spots are not stable but shift from year to year like lights flashing on and off under a map.

It’s not clearly divided by regions. The south side of the U.S. border is a traditional zone of fighting over drug trafficking real estate. Yet while Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez continue to be brutal battlegrounds with sky-high body counts, Coahuila has swung to record one of the lowest murder figures. The central heartlands, meanwhile, used to be fairly peaceful. But Morelos, home to haciendas and spa towns, has shot up to being the second bloodiest state in 2023, with a murder rate of 77.

For anyone traveling, working or living in a difficult area in Mexico then looking at the murder numbers can help risk assessment. And tragically for us all, Mexican or foreign, you need assess the dangers if you are going to a drive across Sinaloa or just visits pyramids in Chiapas.

It’s not totally clear cut. Sometimes, low murder numbers can mean a cartel is in firm control and has a monopoly as in Durango (more on what that means below). And there may few shootings but lots of other crimes such as carjacking. Yet the murder rate gives a good ball park of where the hot spots are.

Of course all homicide numbers have to be taken with skepticism; cartels can bury bodies to reduce the heat and state prosecutors can lie to look better. But the numbers still reveal a lot. Aggressive “nota roja” reporters race to the scenes so it’s impossible for the government to ignore all the killing. The State of Baja California is still corrupt but grudgingly reported 2,437 corpses and the third highest murder rate.

This story is based on preliminary figures for 2023 given out by state prosecutors offices and tallied by the federal government. Death certificates that come out later will likely reveal slightly higher numbers but similar contrasts between states.

Below you can see the map of Mexico’s 32 states color-coded by the homicide level, and below that a list of all the states in order from the must murderous (Colima) to the least (Yucatan) with the number of murders per 100,000 in 2023, and the total murders there in the same year.

Subscribe to get the exclusive maps, analysis and full archive of stories, including interviews with former and active cartel members here, here, and here.