I had a quick question it always comes up in discussion about how should the cartels in Mexico should be stop and What do you think about the work Julian Leyzaola did in TJ and Juarez? It seems like he is a figure not a lot of people know about.
Thanks much there for your question and support friend. Leyzaola is certainly an interesting figure. He definitely achieved results in reducing violence but I think there are some questions how he did it which I would like to investigate further. But all places where there has been any reduction need to be taken into account. I had thought of him as a potential populist pro security presidential candidate but that doesnt seem to happening. All best there l.d.
Unfortunately, Leyzaola being paralyzed and confined to a wheelchair, has hindered his image as a leader and strong man. He is one of Mexico's uncorruptible military and police warriors a quality unfortunately missing in many of Mexico's politicians, military officials and police chiefs. He was brutal in his tactics in Tijuana and Juarez and that maybe is what is required. Here is a quote when he was in Tijuana.
"If the cartels understand only the language of violence, then we are going to have to speak in their language and annihilate them."
He is the godfather of these tactics and I think he influenced the former President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte and Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador. Mexico may lament in the near future not having more police chiefs and military leaders like Jullian Leyzaola.
Thanks there Daniel. Yeah, this is certainly one that can be updated. And there will more of this kind of info and analysis to come for the paid up subscribers - I really appreciate all of those making this happen and you deserve something for your money. Best there friend and happy 2024.
Ioan, great map and certainly a lot more sophisticated then other maps.
You should work on a map of cartel strengths in the United States. Previous maps were pathetic in the lack of information and details. You could plot the extensive reach of the CJNG among the druggie homeless in San Francisco, Portland and Seattle, southeast United States and in Vermont and Maine. Nobody has pin pointed on a map for people the extensive control of Southern California by the Sinaloa cartel extending from Tijuana to San Diego and east to Arizona and Texas, to Riverside County and San Bernadino County east of Los Angeles and using that whole area as a distribution network to Chicago, Detroit and New York City. And this would be just the beginning! You would definitely provoked a raw nerve from those with their heads in the sand in local, state and federal offices in the United States.
Excellent idea Tom. I'll need to get some more research done but this a great one to be working on. I already have a story coming up on cartels in Los Angeles. (Also thanks much your ideas behind this first map, which has gained a lot of new subscribers.) All best there for 2024.
Thanks much Michele. Yeah, I think the grey was just white sectors which were small kind of blurring and it's the same. Next time, I think I could improve the quality of the graphic itself. All best there and good to hear your voice here.
Hello Ioan, as an Aguascalientes resident I'm a bit surprised to see my state coloured blue (CJNG), as opposed to white for low activity like Querétaro. The homicide rate is fairly low, carjacking is rare, and extortion is incidental rather than generalized. The c.w. here is that low activity owes in part to senior players from several cartels keeping their families here.
Yes, it's a fair point to make and there are various borderline cases. There were various statements from the Seguridad Publica and info from Sedena about the presence of the CJNG especially, particularly in the area bordering Zacatecas. It's different from say Yucatan where you really have a very limited cartel presence. However, the murder rate is low, and I put that in the Murder Map as well. Like I say, I think we need to see these things from several angles, which I was why I did this series of three pieces on cartel territory and control. (And agreed on the idea of keeping families in Aguas. Un abrazo fuerte Andrew.
Hey Ioan! One thing that I always think about when I'm reading about the cartels--which I do a lot of. These groups are not really "cartels", as one of the key functions of cartels is to work together to set the price of the commodity that they are selling (the obvious example being OPEC). So do you think it's time to change the name from "cartel" to "DTO"? (I know, good luck getting people to stop saying cartel...) Anyway, just a rhetorical question. Keep up the good work down there and cuidate vato!
Hey Andrew, Great to hear you voice here and thanks for the support. I have a piece on this here on the Stack, Ill send the link. Overall I think while cartel is an imperfect name it is still effective. If people want to use DTO or something like Organized Crime Networks that is fine. But I dont think its a game changer. I think the question of price fixing isnt such a big deal as cartel historically doesnt always mean that, and when people use cartel in the context of organized crime they understand that is not what is being said. I have my thoughts laid out more thoroughly in the piece. Anyway all best there friend.
My question is actually asking for advice on travel. I travel through Miguel Aleman Tamps during the day and on weekends mostly. Do you have some tips on what I can do avoid them considering me an enemy and stopping me to ask where I am going, coming from, etc? It's happened a few times and they let me go but ya know the fact that they have guns and sometimes those guns are pointed at me is something I would like to avoid if at all possible. Or is that type of experience a price I have to pay for traveling through cartel controlled territory? Thank you sir. Best, Oz
Hi there Oz, Yes, there is a difficult one. One thing is to always have a good credential representing who you are and what are you doing. Sometime if you extend that logo to the car it can help as well, although I am bot sure what you do and if it is best to advertise it. Like for example, we put banners saying prensa in the car. If you are working with a local mayor or something, sometime giving your license plates ahead of time manages to stop you getting stopped. Finally when these checks do happen it's best to think of them like police stops and not panic. I hope that helps and if any other readers have experience and ideas how to minimize risk at these points it's appreciated. All best friend.
Excellent advice thank you. Yes, I show my US Citizen Passport Card and my work ID, I work for a school district. The first time they stopped me, I did panic and I fumbled my IDs and got real nervous. They laughed and that put me at ease a little bit. "it's best to think of them like police stops and not panic." I will keep that in mind. "Extend the logo to the car" :) I thought about making a logo of my passport card and putting it on my car doors :D Thanks again Mr. Grillo, Best Oz.
Hi Ioan, very useful and I think you approach the issues very objectively. It is obvious which cartel is supported by officialism and for me is clear the target: ensure continuity, What do you think about it?
Thanks much for reading and your support and great to have your voice here David. I think the cartel-government corruption is a bit more complicated than just the Sinaloa Cartel is the chosen one. Sinaloa certainly buys a lot of protection, but different cartels can make different deals with different elements of the government and security forces in different parts of the country. One of the strategies of the administrations over the last decade is to try and figure out how to handle this and reduce violence, and they haven't. This is a worthy story in itself. Best there.
Excellent work as Always Ioan. By knowing the players, we can start to consider possible strategies. I think allowing the Top Cartel to be “less prosecuted” as long as they stop ALL Fentanyl, while going after the next in line would be a possible course of action if I was an advisor to the new President.
In addition, with a Dramatic reduction in Fentanyl deaths in the US, Mexico has leverage for a SUBSTANTIAL AID PACKAGE to manage the US immigration problem for the US, South of the Border. All the best. STAY SAFE.
Thanks there Bobby X and that is an interesting thought. It will be interesting to see how fentanyl seizures react this year with the pressure. An interesting point Tom Johnson also makes above about fentanyl coming in via the northern border. All best there and happy new year friend.
Ian: I don't remember exactly where I read this, but I think it was a credible U.S. source, that fenanilo seizures are down some 60%. As we all know that maybe due to the gringos missing large loads coming through or......remember when the Chapitos said that were going to scale back making the drug because of all the overdoses in the global north. What's your take?
That is correct that there was a huge drop in fentanyl seizures after a peak in April. (I have the chart in the story on fentanyl being smuggled in vaginas in the reportage section.) I also do believe the Chapitos ban was a part of this. However, the peak was titanic and there is a still a shit load being moved. Lets see what the numbers are like this year. All best and thanks for your support friend.
There maybe a drop in fentanyl seizures in the US but maybe that is being replaced by Canadian shipments. 2.5 million fentanyl pills and 568 gallons of chemicals seized in a shipping container in Vancouver last October. Add in the largest fentanyl lab discovered in Canada earlier near the Niagara Falls in Canada and it looks like again nobody in the United States has been paying any attention to the northern border.
Greet work like always Mr. Grillo!
I had a quick question it always comes up in discussion about how should the cartels in Mexico should be stop and What do you think about the work Julian Leyzaola did in TJ and Juarez? It seems like he is a figure not a lot of people know about.
Thanks much there for your question and support friend. Leyzaola is certainly an interesting figure. He definitely achieved results in reducing violence but I think there are some questions how he did it which I would like to investigate further. But all places where there has been any reduction need to be taken into account. I had thought of him as a potential populist pro security presidential candidate but that doesnt seem to happening. All best there l.d.
Unfortunately, Leyzaola being paralyzed and confined to a wheelchair, has hindered his image as a leader and strong man. He is one of Mexico's uncorruptible military and police warriors a quality unfortunately missing in many of Mexico's politicians, military officials and police chiefs. He was brutal in his tactics in Tijuana and Juarez and that maybe is what is required. Here is a quote when he was in Tijuana.
"If the cartels understand only the language of violence, then we are going to have to speak in their language and annihilate them."
He is the godfather of these tactics and I think he influenced the former President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte and Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador. Mexico may lament in the near future not having more police chiefs and military leaders like Jullian Leyzaola.
A great start to 2024. It’s hard to keep up with the players without a scorecard which you just provided. Keep us posted as things change. Thanks.
Thanks there Daniel. Yeah, this is certainly one that can be updated. And there will more of this kind of info and analysis to come for the paid up subscribers - I really appreciate all of those making this happen and you deserve something for your money. Best there friend and happy 2024.
Ioan, great map and certainly a lot more sophisticated then other maps.
You should work on a map of cartel strengths in the United States. Previous maps were pathetic in the lack of information and details. You could plot the extensive reach of the CJNG among the druggie homeless in San Francisco, Portland and Seattle, southeast United States and in Vermont and Maine. Nobody has pin pointed on a map for people the extensive control of Southern California by the Sinaloa cartel extending from Tijuana to San Diego and east to Arizona and Texas, to Riverside County and San Bernadino County east of Los Angeles and using that whole area as a distribution network to Chicago, Detroit and New York City. And this would be just the beginning! You would definitely provoked a raw nerve from those with their heads in the sand in local, state and federal offices in the United States.
Excellent idea Tom. I'll need to get some more research done but this a great one to be working on. I already have a story coming up on cartels in Los Angeles. (Also thanks much your ideas behind this first map, which has gained a lot of new subscribers.) All best there for 2024.
Hello Ioan, Great work, Thanks for sharing it! Any differences between the gray and white polygons?
Thanks much Michele. Yeah, I think the grey was just white sectors which were small kind of blurring and it's the same. Next time, I think I could improve the quality of the graphic itself. All best there and good to hear your voice here.
That would be great. A colleague of mine up here, Adriana Aguilar at Centro Geo, studies violence in the regions and may have some helpful extra data.
Sounds fantastic.
Are the extortion rackets in Durango Chapito Sinaloa, Mayo, or both?
Hey there Papa Grande - They are under the Cabrera Sarabia family, who are part of the Mayo faction. Best there.
Thanks Ioan! I think conflict with CJNG and internal war with Chapitos constrains Mayo from enforcing rules
Very good point PapaGrande
Excellent Article and Map. I subscribed to see the map. Hope you will do a map on Cartels in the United States. Thanks.
Thanks much Jason and your support is well and truly appreciated. Plenty more maps and stories to come. All best there friend!
Hello Ioan, as an Aguascalientes resident I'm a bit surprised to see my state coloured blue (CJNG), as opposed to white for low activity like Querétaro. The homicide rate is fairly low, carjacking is rare, and extortion is incidental rather than generalized. The c.w. here is that low activity owes in part to senior players from several cartels keeping their families here.
Yes, it's a fair point to make and there are various borderline cases. There were various statements from the Seguridad Publica and info from Sedena about the presence of the CJNG especially, particularly in the area bordering Zacatecas. It's different from say Yucatan where you really have a very limited cartel presence. However, the murder rate is low, and I put that in the Murder Map as well. Like I say, I think we need to see these things from several angles, which I was why I did this series of three pieces on cartel territory and control. (And agreed on the idea of keeping families in Aguas. Un abrazo fuerte Andrew.
Thanks, mate. I think on that basis I would colour-code the southern municipios differently from the northern ones, bordering Zac. Abrazo!
Yeah, I could work on this - and possibly look at an improved and updated map for 2025!
Hey Ioan! One thing that I always think about when I'm reading about the cartels--which I do a lot of. These groups are not really "cartels", as one of the key functions of cartels is to work together to set the price of the commodity that they are selling (the obvious example being OPEC). So do you think it's time to change the name from "cartel" to "DTO"? (I know, good luck getting people to stop saying cartel...) Anyway, just a rhetorical question. Keep up the good work down there and cuidate vato!
Hey Andrew, Great to hear you voice here and thanks for the support. I have a piece on this here on the Stack, Ill send the link. Overall I think while cartel is an imperfect name it is still effective. If people want to use DTO or something like Organized Crime Networks that is fine. But I dont think its a game changer. I think the question of price fixing isnt such a big deal as cartel historically doesnt always mean that, and when people use cartel in the context of organized crime they understand that is not what is being said. I have my thoughts laid out more thoroughly in the piece. Anyway all best there friend.
Here is my piece on the cartel question. Best there -
https://www.crashoutmedia.com/p/what-are-cartels
Hello Mr. Grillo,
My question is actually asking for advice on travel. I travel through Miguel Aleman Tamps during the day and on weekends mostly. Do you have some tips on what I can do avoid them considering me an enemy and stopping me to ask where I am going, coming from, etc? It's happened a few times and they let me go but ya know the fact that they have guns and sometimes those guns are pointed at me is something I would like to avoid if at all possible. Or is that type of experience a price I have to pay for traveling through cartel controlled territory? Thank you sir. Best, Oz
Hi there Oz, Yes, there is a difficult one. One thing is to always have a good credential representing who you are and what are you doing. Sometime if you extend that logo to the car it can help as well, although I am bot sure what you do and if it is best to advertise it. Like for example, we put banners saying prensa in the car. If you are working with a local mayor or something, sometime giving your license plates ahead of time manages to stop you getting stopped. Finally when these checks do happen it's best to think of them like police stops and not panic. I hope that helps and if any other readers have experience and ideas how to minimize risk at these points it's appreciated. All best friend.
Excellent advice thank you. Yes, I show my US Citizen Passport Card and my work ID, I work for a school district. The first time they stopped me, I did panic and I fumbled my IDs and got real nervous. They laughed and that put me at ease a little bit. "it's best to think of them like police stops and not panic." I will keep that in mind. "Extend the logo to the car" :) I thought about making a logo of my passport card and putting it on my car doors :D Thanks again Mr. Grillo, Best Oz.
Good working there and keep in touch Oz
Hi Ioan, very useful and I think you approach the issues very objectively. It is obvious which cartel is supported by officialism and for me is clear the target: ensure continuity, What do you think about it?
Thanks much for reading and your support and great to have your voice here David. I think the cartel-government corruption is a bit more complicated than just the Sinaloa Cartel is the chosen one. Sinaloa certainly buys a lot of protection, but different cartels can make different deals with different elements of the government and security forces in different parts of the country. One of the strategies of the administrations over the last decade is to try and figure out how to handle this and reduce violence, and they haven't. This is a worthy story in itself. Best there.
Excellent work as Always Ioan. By knowing the players, we can start to consider possible strategies. I think allowing the Top Cartel to be “less prosecuted” as long as they stop ALL Fentanyl, while going after the next in line would be a possible course of action if I was an advisor to the new President.
In addition, with a Dramatic reduction in Fentanyl deaths in the US, Mexico has leverage for a SUBSTANTIAL AID PACKAGE to manage the US immigration problem for the US, South of the Border. All the best. STAY SAFE.
Thanks there Bobby X and that is an interesting thought. It will be interesting to see how fentanyl seizures react this year with the pressure. An interesting point Tom Johnson also makes above about fentanyl coming in via the northern border. All best there and happy new year friend.
Ian: I don't remember exactly where I read this, but I think it was a credible U.S. source, that fenanilo seizures are down some 60%. As we all know that maybe due to the gringos missing large loads coming through or......remember when the Chapitos said that were going to scale back making the drug because of all the overdoses in the global north. What's your take?
That is correct that there was a huge drop in fentanyl seizures after a peak in April. (I have the chart in the story on fentanyl being smuggled in vaginas in the reportage section.) I also do believe the Chapitos ban was a part of this. However, the peak was titanic and there is a still a shit load being moved. Lets see what the numbers are like this year. All best and thanks for your support friend.
There maybe a drop in fentanyl seizures in the US but maybe that is being replaced by Canadian shipments. 2.5 million fentanyl pills and 568 gallons of chemicals seized in a shipping container in Vancouver last October. Add in the largest fentanyl lab discovered in Canada earlier near the Niagara Falls in Canada and it looks like again nobody in the United States has been paying any attention to the northern border.