A fine summary! I guess the more successful U.S. law enforcement makes priorities of the worst crimes and they need to start somewhere. But yes, there is a fine line of giving groups impunity.
I’m just reading between the lines of your reporting. I hope Mexico is not trying to model themselves after the U.S.. We are not in a good place right now.
Totally agreed on this one Fredy - "We are not in a good place right now." What do think would work as a strategy to reduce violence in Mexico? All best friend.
So A modified martial law? Im interested how they would battle the financial businesses of the narcocartels. What would be the punishment for being a cartel member? I wonder.
With the announcement today that the US subsidiaries of Toronto Dominion Bank(TD) have been fined up to 3.1 billion dollars for money laundering to drug cartels shows the real problem for Mexico's government. Destroying the financial sector involved in money laundering could be an excellent opportunity for President Sheinbaum to pursue and in the long run be far more effective then a military solution or any peace proposal with the cartels. There are international groups and private security companies specializing in training government officials in the pursuit of money laundering.
There is little criminal consequence for financial institutions for money laundering in the United States and the UK and Mexico would have to institute draconian measures as a price to pay for financial criminal activities. Long massive jail sentences for the leadership of criminal financial institutions, temporary nationalization of the criminal banks, seizures of their personal property and suspension of bail for the charges. If there were immediate and draconian consequences for money laundering you would enforce more voluntary participation by the financial institutions to monitor their banking operations. Robert Mazur who was in involved in destroying the Medellin cartel's finances stated what should be the choice for Mexico's government and the United States.
"If you look at the career ladders of law enforcement, there's no incentive to go after the big money. People move every two to three years. The DEA is focused on drug trafficking rather than money laundering. You get a quicker result that way – they want to get the traffickers and seize their assets. But this is like treating a sick plant by cutting off a few branches – it just grows new ones. Going after the big money is cutting down the plant – it's a harder door to knock on, it's a longer haul, and it won't get you the short-term riches."
Partnership between Mexico and the United States on this issue could be the most beneficial collaboration between the two countries and certainly more beneficial then the war on drugs collaboration.
I think your point on narco corruption is very important; the narrative can be as if this was solved (by AMLO), but we know that the extent is out of control. And it is linked with the extortion; my guess is that some of the extortion money ends in mid and low level government offices (It may be solved in the highest level which the presidency can control). Thanks again, dear chairo journalist!
Yeah, it's a very concerning issue. On this count we have to consider the National Guard as well, as Joe Schmoe pointed out in a comment. I was just hearing about the National Guard's potential role in the extortion of migrants. Well, I am a chairo fifi really! Abrazo Carlos.
nothing mentioned about tracking the money and the profit through money Lou seeing schemes in Mexico or abroad. Should not it be part of any strategy against transnational crime?
Hi Olivier. Good point there and I think that absolutely it should be. Just a caveat though, sometimes going after the money is not quite the magic bullet it sounds of decimating cartels. And I am also wary of getting too invasive on everybody's finances (ie killing cash). But still, it's amazing and suspicious they don't find more cartel money. Great to have your voice here.
At this time do you see one side or the other of the cartel taking more control or "winning" this war? It seems that the Mayos lined up their ducks and seem to have more resources or at least fire power. Sounds like there have been some capitulation of areas and/or some members switching sides. Any thoughts on outcomes and time it may take for things to go back to normal or some type of "Sinaloa normal"?
It's very tough. People on the streets in Sinaloa seem more on the side of the Mayos, and the military are hitting the Chapitos harder but the Chapitos should not be underestimated. I'll go into this further on the video answer.
Both are bad groups but the Mayos seem to have a certain connection to their communities, (maybe that is old school?) and they may be violent but are more careful about what they do in their backyards
I guess we’ll know more about this plan in a year or so. The proof is always “in the pudding” so to speak.
I’m certainly not an expert on Mexican culture but have been around it enough to know there are some aspects that never will completely change and can only be mitigated to a certain extent. I appreciate your candor and understand the position you’re in. You have to exist with all sides of the conflict but to do this requires some nuance.
Thanks much there Daniel and that is exactly. We can have a better sense of where it is at at the end of 2025. But at least we have some things to measure it by - amount of murders and of extortion.
Impunity is helped along by using military as civilian police force. They do not have experience in investigation techniques and seem to rely on driving around in heavily armed convoys. Sicarios wait until they pass by then do their dirty work. What about using trained detectives and civilian police to arrest perpetrators?
Yep indeed good point and this has been an issue for many years and of course they need that. One note of realism. In Mexico, there are hundreds of thousands of unsolved murders, which is pretty overwhelming. Also, in places like Sinaloa right now you have a literal armed conflict with paramilitary groups going at each other. I think they do need strong forces as a containment and try and go towards a place where many more murders actually get solved. Anyway, great to have your voice here and all best there friend.
In other words they are going back to Felipe Calderon's strategy (target high profile targets, military deployment where necessary, build intelligence capacity etc..) with a few pointless (and unenforceable) hugs not guns additions like knocking on doors to make sure kids are at school. But then again, Omar Garcia got his start in security in the revitalized Federal Police force that Calderon founded, which was later abandoned as it proved too effective for AMLO's narco buddies.
Always great to hear from you John but I would differ it is the same strategy as Calderon. Calderon had a notion of smashing the cartels and bringing down top target kingpins - and it looked successful on that while murders surged. It also sent an army into the fight without a clear long term plan of what that would mean. To interpret the current plan generously, they are saying now National Guard is a legalized long term internal police force and objectives are to reduce the worst anti social crimes. It could certainly go wrong through. And interesting point about the Federal Police. On the flipside though would you agree the PFP to federal police to Gendarmerie to National Guard are a continuation of the same project of creating a powerful federal paramilitary police. All best friend.
A little bit of stream of consciousness is not a bad thing...
He was trying to weaken the cartels before it was too late, not smash them. . Now it is too late, they are more embedded than ever.
It was about creating the first federal, professional police force that was not militarized but was equipped with technology and intelligence. Sending in the army is always a last resort and never a strategy... and under Mexican law the state governor has to request military deployment, as Lazaro Cardenas did in Michoacan...
And it was a long term, carefully thought out strategy that included judicial reform/professional police/political reform (re-election)/building institutions.
But all anyone focused on was the rising number of murders (which started under Fox).... and the media went all in on this measure, with few of them providing context... the judges successfully resisted the reforms... state governors blamed the feds for their own poor decisions.... and in the end the business community decided it was in the best interests of the billionaires not to have a democracy or economic reforms that would threaten the monopolies they control...
Unlike Pena/AMLO/ShineBoom Calderon was a democrat... If he had run roughshod over the rule of law he might have made more progress... but he constantly refused the temptation to do so...many asked him to...
Now the new Praetorian Guard (the name is irrelevant but it is made up of cartels, army and police) and there is no accountability within the institutions, it is all about what the president wants..
The only plan is to stay in power forever, nothing else....Whatever they are saying now, they will be saying something very different in a couple of years but convincing themselves and others that nothing has changed and the right people are in charge...
The PRI is back.... and the only hope for Mexico is a U.S. invasion - which I think is more likely than not... the only real policy the U.S. has towards Mexico is don't cause us problems...
Great to hear your thoughts on this - and where the admin was coming from. I did a long interview with Calderon in 2019 and have a lot on tape and it's good to make sense of this history. It's a fascinating debate. I have a few counters though, as I can't resist...
1) If Calderon had a correct instinct to smash the rise of the cartel in Michoacan, and that could be justified, he surely didn't see the national violence blowing up and have this thought out as a strategy. I don't think anyone saw it. Both critics and defenders can be tempted to read history backwards.
2) A big stain on his administration, and really on the strategy, was Garcia Luna. I know the trial was perhaps not 100 percent convincing but nobody is defending Garcia Luna now not even Calderon.
3) This line - "and the only hope for Mexico is a U.S. invasion" is a bit of a red rag! Not a serious notion surely. Maybe a few cross border strikes if Trump wins, but invasion!!!
1. Confusion abounds in terms of cause and effect, and this usually means we have many things happening all at once but too many people yearn for a clear narrative and easy to understand narrative.
2. Michoacan was breaking down because Lazaro Cardenas decided to leave the narcos alone and that didn't work. So he requested the army (important point this!!!) come in to try and fix his issues, particularly around the port that bears his name. I don't think the word "smash" helps us to understand what happened. It is always much more complex than that.
3. The cartels flourished during Calderon's presidency for many reasons that had nothing to do with Mexican federal government decisions, including the meth epidemic. But probably the most important was the economic downturn in 2009. Crime always and everywhere rises as economies falter. This is a much more rooted and well-founded reason for the rise in crime than the "he started dealing with crime so it rose" argument so beloved of commentators. It's mind-blowing to see this fallacy accepted without question given that not tackling crime is not a well-known security strategy for obvious reasons. There is also the cinco anos como rey, no 50 como guey...
4. I have never seen a man condemned on such paltry grounds as the confused testimony of a witness (a long-time criminal) looking for penal leniency. The CIA hired him as did the FBI.... having said that the Federal Police (the old-timers mainly from the old highway cops brigade) had some pretty rotten divisions that were not cleaned out for reasons I don't understand. So it is hard to stand up for him, but his conviction is worrying - his conviction in return for AMLO agreeing to Trump's new free trade deal? I think that is more likely than not. Probably have to wait for season ten of Narcos Mexico to find out.
5. If you take a long view, it is highly likely that the U.S. will take control of Northern Mexico some time in the next 50 years. And Northern Mexico will be glad of it. Just ask a Ukrainian. I also think the same of Canada, it is not a viable nation... much like Mexico it does not have the capacity to control its entire territory in a comprehensive fashion.
Fascinating thoughts, and great to hear a different perspective on all this. There is one point you make there that is very interesting in point 4. I was wondering if I might be able to make a follow up inquiry on that point - but to be more discreet is there a mail I could reach out to you on that? Best there.
You should look up a channel on youtube called task and purpose. He's a former us army soldier that does conflict analysis of different wars around the world. And he often talks about the Mexican cartel issue. One of his most recent videos is called us special forces top secret missions in Latin America. Where he talks about the history of u.s. covert ops in Latin America from the cold war to now.
Yeah even though he was a despot he was a strong personality and he had a larger than life persona and firmly believed in his ideals till the end. Even though they were repugnant and repressive
Cuba is better off without out that party in power though. Cuba does seem like a fascinating country to me and havana is definitely a bucket list city. Plus cuban girls are very attractive and I hear they like Mexicans lol
Yeah mentions the CIA mission to kill che guevara in Bolivia, the central American covert missions from Guatemala to Panama, the manhunt for escobar in colombia, the re capture of chapo, the failed attempt to oust maduro in Venezuela, etc like I said the CIA has an endless rabbit hole. And he didn't even mention all the failed assassination attempts on castro or operation condor in south America.
I feel like this presidential tenure is not gonna be much better for Mexico. It still sounds like a somewhat passive stance on organized crime. It's least somewhat better sounding than what amlo did which was basically nothing and just attacked America. Extortion is definitely a big issue that the Mexican state needs to get a hold of. Hardworking Mexicans shouldn't have to be slaves to lazy murdering narcos. I'm guessing sheinbaum could care less about catching or killing cartel capos? Since the kingpin strategy just causes infighting and fragmentation. They need to attack these organizations from the bottom up all the way down to the halcone and to the capo . As well as root out political corruption that gives cover for the drug lords. I wonder how what trump's or Harris policy be towards Mexico. Wether we do see the FTO designation and covert spec ops raids in Mexico with or without the approval of the Mexican government. Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if we did given the murky history the CIA has in Latin America.
I don't want to write off this presidency just a week in and I always try and be fair - but sure, I am a realist. Whoever wins the U.S. election will impact the relationship - AMLO got on well with Trump, but Sheinbaum would be different perhaps...
Unfortunately this sounds like a huge number of US cities who attempt to quiet the crimes which attract publicity and negatively impact the economy of the city such as fears about investing in the economy of the city. It is like putting a blanket over the city and let the rats squirm under the blanket and shoot those that escape the blanket. This blanket allows the rats to even get bigger, though.
When you set what crimes will be your priority and the other crimes that you do not prioritize higher, may explode into worse crimes. The downgrading of crimes in California regarding shoplifting, theft under a 1,000 dollars and no immediate police enforcement for those so-called misdemeanors resulted in a huge explosion of organized smash and grab crimes and a huge dramatic rise in theft that really impacts the small store owner and disrespect for law enforcement that will not be bothered for any so-called small crime. Neighborhood policing is a strong deterrent to to localized crime but policing now is organized as military units on call with little community involvement. It is also cheaper.
If you attack any financial source for cartels, such as extortion, there will be a reaction by the cartels and it will be violent. Will these specialized units of the military, police or National Guards be prepared enough for a reaction or will it result in further corruption of the enforcement against the cartels? Specialized units in the United States have been a disaster and became poster child's of corruption and violence. From Los Angeles to New York and Memphis and Atlanta, former special intelligence and gang units turned into dedicated units of crime and destruction. There are and have been special intelligence and military units that have been successful and corruption free but they received the full backing from their government and were extremely vetted before even becoming a member. The members of these units have to be well compensated and their families too especially with death benefits to the families. A sense of purpose and even a type of patriotic nationalism has to be instilled. The consequences of corruption should result in execution.
It seems Mexico's new government is still dancing around the question of narco influence, control and power in Mexico. Containment policy has not been very successful and not stating openly what the problems are will make the rats grow even larger.
Hmmm. Long insightful answers like this are one of the best parts of this Substack. Unfortunately, this rings painfully true and knocks the optimism I am trying to muster! Let's see. I still want to hope that things can improve and this at least seems like a plan, after AMLO basically didn't have one. But I hope it is not another 200,000 murders in this sexenio! Best there Tom.
Here are some different examples which may make you more optimistic. The CIA in 1986 said it would be at least 35 years before the iron curtain comes down and the downfall of the Soviet Union. Lenin in 1915 said it would be 20 years before a revolution would occur in Russia. Headlines in the Economist congratulating themselves and the World Economic Forum that Globalism is here to stay in 2015. Then almost immediately, Brexit and Donald Trump. Then something I was a very, very small part of, Austria was on the verge of a total suspension of any rights for the unvaccinated in 2021 including sending unvaccinated to education camps. 100,000 people out of nowhere demonstrated in Vienna and the proposals were tabled.
History is full of major disruptions never anticipated. Ideas are like tree roots and you never know how far these roots extend. All you must do is water and fertilize the ideas you believe in.
The Israel Palestine conflict is another rabbit hole I've been trying to learn more about recently ugh. It's such a long and bitter conflict. It ironically has some similarities to the troubles in northern Ireland. But thankfully they found a political solution for northern Ireland I don't know if that's possible for Israel though
So the message to cartels is, stop extorting, don’t kill too many people in one place and we won’t mess with you?
A fine summary! I guess the more successful U.S. law enforcement makes priorities of the worst crimes and they need to start somewhere. But yes, there is a fine line of giving groups impunity.
I’m just reading between the lines of your reporting. I hope Mexico is not trying to model themselves after the U.S.. We are not in a good place right now.
Totally agreed on this one Fredy - "We are not in a good place right now." What do think would work as a strategy to reduce violence in Mexico? All best friend.
Quickly: The only thing that will reduce the violence is a change of heart/great awakening in the people.
Realistically and very slow: parenting! This issue isn’t a light switch.
No laws or policies will dictate morality.
I know a lot of people bagged on the general who said that it was up to the cartels to stop the violence and in a sense he is right.
I’m not trying to be preachy, unfortunately that’s the only way I see things changing.
Thanks for this insight. A lot of fascinating points to get deeper into discussion on. Abrazo Fredy.
So A modified martial law? Im interested how they would battle the financial businesses of the narcocartels. What would be the punishment for being a cartel member? I wonder.
I'll answer some of this on a video answer - but yeah a modified marital law, or certainly crime fighting by a wing of the military...
Maybe a death penalty or life imprisonment for cartel sicarios?
With the announcement today that the US subsidiaries of Toronto Dominion Bank(TD) have been fined up to 3.1 billion dollars for money laundering to drug cartels shows the real problem for Mexico's government. Destroying the financial sector involved in money laundering could be an excellent opportunity for President Sheinbaum to pursue and in the long run be far more effective then a military solution or any peace proposal with the cartels. There are international groups and private security companies specializing in training government officials in the pursuit of money laundering.
There is little criminal consequence for financial institutions for money laundering in the United States and the UK and Mexico would have to institute draconian measures as a price to pay for financial criminal activities. Long massive jail sentences for the leadership of criminal financial institutions, temporary nationalization of the criminal banks, seizures of their personal property and suspension of bail for the charges. If there were immediate and draconian consequences for money laundering you would enforce more voluntary participation by the financial institutions to monitor their banking operations. Robert Mazur who was in involved in destroying the Medellin cartel's finances stated what should be the choice for Mexico's government and the United States.
"If you look at the career ladders of law enforcement, there's no incentive to go after the big money. People move every two to three years. The DEA is focused on drug trafficking rather than money laundering. You get a quicker result that way – they want to get the traffickers and seize their assets. But this is like treating a sick plant by cutting off a few branches – it just grows new ones. Going after the big money is cutting down the plant – it's a harder door to knock on, it's a longer haul, and it won't get you the short-term riches."
Partnership between Mexico and the United States on this issue could be the most beneficial collaboration between the two countries and certainly more beneficial then the war on drugs collaboration.
Yeah, huge story there on the Toronto Dominion Bank. The money keeps flowing, the people keep dying. Can't get off the wheel.
I think your point on narco corruption is very important; the narrative can be as if this was solved (by AMLO), but we know that the extent is out of control. And it is linked with the extortion; my guess is that some of the extortion money ends in mid and low level government offices (It may be solved in the highest level which the presidency can control). Thanks again, dear chairo journalist!
Yeah, it's a very concerning issue. On this count we have to consider the National Guard as well, as Joe Schmoe pointed out in a comment. I was just hearing about the National Guard's potential role in the extortion of migrants. Well, I am a chairo fifi really! Abrazo Carlos.
Dear Ioan,
nothing mentioned about tracking the money and the profit through money Lou seeing schemes in Mexico or abroad. Should not it be part of any strategy against transnational crime?
Hi Olivier. Good point there and I think that absolutely it should be. Just a caveat though, sometimes going after the money is not quite the magic bullet it sounds of decimating cartels. And I am also wary of getting too invasive on everybody's finances (ie killing cash). But still, it's amazing and suspicious they don't find more cartel money. Great to have your voice here.
At this time do you see one side or the other of the cartel taking more control or "winning" this war? It seems that the Mayos lined up their ducks and seem to have more resources or at least fire power. Sounds like there have been some capitulation of areas and/or some members switching sides. Any thoughts on outcomes and time it may take for things to go back to normal or some type of "Sinaloa normal"?
It's very tough. People on the streets in Sinaloa seem more on the side of the Mayos, and the military are hitting the Chapitos harder but the Chapitos should not be underestimated. I'll go into this further on the video answer.
Do you think they preferred mayo because he was an old school boss that was more about business than violence?
That is exactly what people on the street say. I think the truth may be more nuanced though.
Yeah I'm guessing they don't like the more younger hot tempered capos like ivan guzman
Both are bad groups but the Mayos seem to have a certain connection to their communities, (maybe that is old school?) and they may be violent but are more careful about what they do in their backyards
I guess we’ll know more about this plan in a year or so. The proof is always “in the pudding” so to speak.
I’m certainly not an expert on Mexican culture but have been around it enough to know there are some aspects that never will completely change and can only be mitigated to a certain extent. I appreciate your candor and understand the position you’re in. You have to exist with all sides of the conflict but to do this requires some nuance.
Thanks much there Daniel and that is exactly. We can have a better sense of where it is at at the end of 2025. But at least we have some things to measure it by - amount of murders and of extortion.
Impunity is helped along by using military as civilian police force. They do not have experience in investigation techniques and seem to rely on driving around in heavily armed convoys. Sicarios wait until they pass by then do their dirty work. What about using trained detectives and civilian police to arrest perpetrators?
Yep indeed good point and this has been an issue for many years and of course they need that. One note of realism. In Mexico, there are hundreds of thousands of unsolved murders, which is pretty overwhelming. Also, in places like Sinaloa right now you have a literal armed conflict with paramilitary groups going at each other. I think they do need strong forces as a containment and try and go towards a place where many more murders actually get solved. Anyway, great to have your voice here and all best there friend.
Also how can anyone take this new policy of using guardia national to fight extortion seriously when there are multiple examples of they themselves committing extortion? Like this one caught on video. https://x.com/MrElDiablo8/status/1575759788452913157?t=DjDNLXYolSUe11o9OVkFWg&s=19
"Pa al chesco" A too familiar line to hear in Mexico!
In other words they are going back to Felipe Calderon's strategy (target high profile targets, military deployment where necessary, build intelligence capacity etc..) with a few pointless (and unenforceable) hugs not guns additions like knocking on doors to make sure kids are at school. But then again, Omar Garcia got his start in security in the revitalized Federal Police force that Calderon founded, which was later abandoned as it proved too effective for AMLO's narco buddies.
Always great to hear from you John but I would differ it is the same strategy as Calderon. Calderon had a notion of smashing the cartels and bringing down top target kingpins - and it looked successful on that while murders surged. It also sent an army into the fight without a clear long term plan of what that would mean. To interpret the current plan generously, they are saying now National Guard is a legalized long term internal police force and objectives are to reduce the worst anti social crimes. It could certainly go wrong through. And interesting point about the Federal Police. On the flipside though would you agree the PFP to federal police to Gendarmerie to National Guard are a continuation of the same project of creating a powerful federal paramilitary police. All best friend.
A little bit of stream of consciousness is not a bad thing...
He was trying to weaken the cartels before it was too late, not smash them. . Now it is too late, they are more embedded than ever.
It was about creating the first federal, professional police force that was not militarized but was equipped with technology and intelligence. Sending in the army is always a last resort and never a strategy... and under Mexican law the state governor has to request military deployment, as Lazaro Cardenas did in Michoacan...
And it was a long term, carefully thought out strategy that included judicial reform/professional police/political reform (re-election)/building institutions.
But all anyone focused on was the rising number of murders (which started under Fox).... and the media went all in on this measure, with few of them providing context... the judges successfully resisted the reforms... state governors blamed the feds for their own poor decisions.... and in the end the business community decided it was in the best interests of the billionaires not to have a democracy or economic reforms that would threaten the monopolies they control...
Unlike Pena/AMLO/ShineBoom Calderon was a democrat... If he had run roughshod over the rule of law he might have made more progress... but he constantly refused the temptation to do so...many asked him to...
Now the new Praetorian Guard (the name is irrelevant but it is made up of cartels, army and police) and there is no accountability within the institutions, it is all about what the president wants..
The only plan is to stay in power forever, nothing else....Whatever they are saying now, they will be saying something very different in a couple of years but convincing themselves and others that nothing has changed and the right people are in charge...
The PRI is back.... and the only hope for Mexico is a U.S. invasion - which I think is more likely than not... the only real policy the U.S. has towards Mexico is don't cause us problems...
https://heraldodemexico.com.mx/opinion/2024/10/9/estrategia-de-seguridad-diferencias-similitudes-sexenales-644235.html
it never ends
Great to hear your thoughts on this - and where the admin was coming from. I did a long interview with Calderon in 2019 and have a lot on tape and it's good to make sense of this history. It's a fascinating debate. I have a few counters though, as I can't resist...
1) If Calderon had a correct instinct to smash the rise of the cartel in Michoacan, and that could be justified, he surely didn't see the national violence blowing up and have this thought out as a strategy. I don't think anyone saw it. Both critics and defenders can be tempted to read history backwards.
2) A big stain on his administration, and really on the strategy, was Garcia Luna. I know the trial was perhaps not 100 percent convincing but nobody is defending Garcia Luna now not even Calderon.
3) This line - "and the only hope for Mexico is a U.S. invasion" is a bit of a red rag! Not a serious notion surely. Maybe a few cross border strikes if Trump wins, but invasion!!!
Anyway, all best there friend.
Derecho de replica:
1. Confusion abounds in terms of cause and effect, and this usually means we have many things happening all at once but too many people yearn for a clear narrative and easy to understand narrative.
2. Michoacan was breaking down because Lazaro Cardenas decided to leave the narcos alone and that didn't work. So he requested the army (important point this!!!) come in to try and fix his issues, particularly around the port that bears his name. I don't think the word "smash" helps us to understand what happened. It is always much more complex than that.
3. The cartels flourished during Calderon's presidency for many reasons that had nothing to do with Mexican federal government decisions, including the meth epidemic. But probably the most important was the economic downturn in 2009. Crime always and everywhere rises as economies falter. This is a much more rooted and well-founded reason for the rise in crime than the "he started dealing with crime so it rose" argument so beloved of commentators. It's mind-blowing to see this fallacy accepted without question given that not tackling crime is not a well-known security strategy for obvious reasons. There is also the cinco anos como rey, no 50 como guey...
4. I have never seen a man condemned on such paltry grounds as the confused testimony of a witness (a long-time criminal) looking for penal leniency. The CIA hired him as did the FBI.... having said that the Federal Police (the old-timers mainly from the old highway cops brigade) had some pretty rotten divisions that were not cleaned out for reasons I don't understand. So it is hard to stand up for him, but his conviction is worrying - his conviction in return for AMLO agreeing to Trump's new free trade deal? I think that is more likely than not. Probably have to wait for season ten of Narcos Mexico to find out.
5. If you take a long view, it is highly likely that the U.S. will take control of Northern Mexico some time in the next 50 years. And Northern Mexico will be glad of it. Just ask a Ukrainian. I also think the same of Canada, it is not a viable nation... much like Mexico it does not have the capacity to control its entire territory in a comprehensive fashion.
Fascinating thoughts, and great to hear a different perspective on all this. There is one point you make there that is very interesting in point 4. I was wondering if I might be able to make a follow up inquiry on that point - but to be more discreet is there a mail I could reach out to you on that? Best there.
You should look up a channel on youtube called task and purpose. He's a former us army soldier that does conflict analysis of different wars around the world. And he often talks about the Mexican cartel issue. One of his most recent videos is called us special forces top secret missions in Latin America. Where he talks about the history of u.s. covert ops in Latin America from the cold war to now.
I'll check it out.
American imperialism baby 😎 🇺🇲
Super power and clandestine - rather than good ol' Red Coats and cannon
Castro still beat us because he died of old age lol and he lived on an island only a couple kilometers away from Florida 😂
He was a real strong leader as well as some bad things - I heard Cuba right now is really in terrible shape.
I wonder how much cartels charge for cuban migrants to cross the border
It seems the mexico journey is being preferred over the Florida route to them now
Mexico has lots of Cuban migrants huh?
Yeah even though he was a despot he was a strong personality and he had a larger than life persona and firmly believed in his ideals till the end. Even though they were repugnant and repressive
Cuba is better off without out that party in power though. Cuba does seem like a fascinating country to me and havana is definitely a bucket list city. Plus cuban girls are very attractive and I hear they like Mexicans lol
We perfected it for better or worse lol
Yeah mentions the CIA mission to kill che guevara in Bolivia, the central American covert missions from Guatemala to Panama, the manhunt for escobar in colombia, the re capture of chapo, the failed attempt to oust maduro in Venezuela, etc like I said the CIA has an endless rabbit hole. And he didn't even mention all the failed assassination attempts on castro or operation condor in south America.
I feel like this presidential tenure is not gonna be much better for Mexico. It still sounds like a somewhat passive stance on organized crime. It's least somewhat better sounding than what amlo did which was basically nothing and just attacked America. Extortion is definitely a big issue that the Mexican state needs to get a hold of. Hardworking Mexicans shouldn't have to be slaves to lazy murdering narcos. I'm guessing sheinbaum could care less about catching or killing cartel capos? Since the kingpin strategy just causes infighting and fragmentation. They need to attack these organizations from the bottom up all the way down to the halcone and to the capo . As well as root out political corruption that gives cover for the drug lords. I wonder how what trump's or Harris policy be towards Mexico. Wether we do see the FTO designation and covert spec ops raids in Mexico with or without the approval of the Mexican government. Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if we did given the murky history the CIA has in Latin America.
I don't want to write off this presidency just a week in and I always try and be fair - but sure, I am a realist. Whoever wins the U.S. election will impact the relationship - AMLO got on well with Trump, but Sheinbaum would be different perhaps...
Sheinbaum will be his b%ch!!!................nah im just playing lol or am i?
It could well be Kamala and Sheinbaum ruling north America
Noooooooooooooooooooooo!!!
Unfortunately this sounds like a huge number of US cities who attempt to quiet the crimes which attract publicity and negatively impact the economy of the city such as fears about investing in the economy of the city. It is like putting a blanket over the city and let the rats squirm under the blanket and shoot those that escape the blanket. This blanket allows the rats to even get bigger, though.
When you set what crimes will be your priority and the other crimes that you do not prioritize higher, may explode into worse crimes. The downgrading of crimes in California regarding shoplifting, theft under a 1,000 dollars and no immediate police enforcement for those so-called misdemeanors resulted in a huge explosion of organized smash and grab crimes and a huge dramatic rise in theft that really impacts the small store owner and disrespect for law enforcement that will not be bothered for any so-called small crime. Neighborhood policing is a strong deterrent to to localized crime but policing now is organized as military units on call with little community involvement. It is also cheaper.
If you attack any financial source for cartels, such as extortion, there will be a reaction by the cartels and it will be violent. Will these specialized units of the military, police or National Guards be prepared enough for a reaction or will it result in further corruption of the enforcement against the cartels? Specialized units in the United States have been a disaster and became poster child's of corruption and violence. From Los Angeles to New York and Memphis and Atlanta, former special intelligence and gang units turned into dedicated units of crime and destruction. There are and have been special intelligence and military units that have been successful and corruption free but they received the full backing from their government and were extremely vetted before even becoming a member. The members of these units have to be well compensated and their families too especially with death benefits to the families. A sense of purpose and even a type of patriotic nationalism has to be instilled. The consequences of corruption should result in execution.
It seems Mexico's new government is still dancing around the question of narco influence, control and power in Mexico. Containment policy has not been very successful and not stating openly what the problems are will make the rats grow even larger.
Hmmm. Long insightful answers like this are one of the best parts of this Substack. Unfortunately, this rings painfully true and knocks the optimism I am trying to muster! Let's see. I still want to hope that things can improve and this at least seems like a plan, after AMLO basically didn't have one. But I hope it is not another 200,000 murders in this sexenio! Best there Tom.
Here are some different examples which may make you more optimistic. The CIA in 1986 said it would be at least 35 years before the iron curtain comes down and the downfall of the Soviet Union. Lenin in 1915 said it would be 20 years before a revolution would occur in Russia. Headlines in the Economist congratulating themselves and the World Economic Forum that Globalism is here to stay in 2015. Then almost immediately, Brexit and Donald Trump. Then something I was a very, very small part of, Austria was on the verge of a total suspension of any rights for the unvaccinated in 2021 including sending unvaccinated to education camps. 100,000 people out of nowhere demonstrated in Vienna and the proposals were tabled.
History is full of major disruptions never anticipated. Ideas are like tree roots and you never know how far these roots extend. All you must do is water and fertilize the ideas you believe in.
Thankfully my boy reagan took down the soviet union 😂
There is a Suicidal Tendencies song from their great first album - "I shot the devil" (check out the words) - it got Mike Muir questioned by the FBI
Thanks there Tom for that switch and what a great summary of unexpected turns. Human society is crazy and sad but can be amazing and inspiring.
Is there truth to the rumor that new security chief harfuch has ties to Sinaloa cartel and that's why the cjng tried to knock him off?
I have to be careful answering this one! But yes, that is an accusation...
Is it true Omar garcia has a military relative that was involved in the 1968 Mexico city Olympic massacres?
Yes, apparently his grandfather was Marcelino García Barragán, involved in Tlatelolco...
And ironically the munich massacre would happen at the munich Olympics only 4 years later......
Interesting. I better watch Munich to find out about that one...
Your probably like yeaaaaahh I'm not touching that one I better stay with drug crime narco stuff LMAO
The Israel Palestine conflict is another rabbit hole I've been trying to learn more about recently ugh. It's such a long and bitter conflict. It ironically has some similarities to the troubles in northern Ireland. But thankfully they found a political solution for northern Ireland I don't know if that's possible for Israel though
Yeah I wonder how that makes him look to the public
Yeah, an interesting one. I am not sure yet among the broader public how much it would affect him.
Does he?
remember the rumors that Calderon had ties to the Sinaloa cartel?