Been a fan of Ioan's books for a few years now and just discovered and subscribed to this Substack. I had high expectations and still came out impressed.
This is hands-down the best article I've read about amlo's security policy. Comprehensive, nonpartisan, thorough, direct.
It's been fascinating to me seeing the shift in amlo's doctrine, it seems like what started as "Abrazos, no balazos" turned into "abrazos, a veces balazos" and is now in the "abrazos, también balazos" phase.
I think any serious attempt at combating the narco problem must be two-pronged: the abrazos side must ensure our youth has real chances at quality education and dignified work ie. livable wages and work/life balance. The bitter balazos aspect should be a strong military deterrence policy aimed at keeping the population safe from extortion, human trafficking, and collateral damage from cartel in-fighting.
While our military is far from perfect and certainly not immune to corruption, I believe it is our most solid gov't institution and currently the best tool for the job (im talking about both SEDENA and SEMAR). In online circles, this is a controversial opinion, but as the article says, most people are in favor of military prescence in our streets.
Thanks so much there OriginalFlamingo and great points. I think the abrazos side needs to be very focused programs - let's hope Claudia Sheinbaum might realize that. The balazos side could perhaps focus first on trying to draw lines on cartel activity, ie - keeping them out of the main highways, city centers, kidnappings, and then going from there. There will be a lot to talk about in 2024. In the meantime, have a great new year friend.
The sign that showed me ALMO is clueless is that he wanted to model a unit after “UN Peacekeeping Troops.” Does he have any idea how ineffective and useless they are? The sign that made me question if he is corrupt is his demands that were made to have Cienfuegos released. Solid work as always Ioan.
Thanks Ioan. I look forward to the day when Mexico has a brighter future and you teach this important history as a Professor in a Mexico City University.
PS again: By calling it "doctrine" you are suggesting that there is one and dressing it up more that it deserves. I don't think that is the case. AMLO is adjusting to the situation as he goes along.
Thanks again. Yes, on making it all federal control, I used to think that might be the solution but now I thinl Mexico is perhaps too big and unwieldy for it. I think probably a mix is needed but I may be wrong.
Amlo must be stoped, because is dangerous. whit the pact whit cartel drugs and insecurity, for example in Zacatecas México, that city is example of crime, a beautifull city but in dangerous, is What mexicans will live in rest of country
Thanks much for the comment Antonio. Yes, it is especially tragic what is happening in Zacatecas - what an extreme murder rate. I hope to do some more reporting from there soon. Best and keep in touch.
Wow! ! You've written a whopper of an article here. I should have taken notes while I was reading it, but I didn't realize how long it is and just kept reading. My comments are random and not organized in any way like going from the most important to the least. So here we go:
Alejandro Hope has said in other fora that the Guardia is not deployed where the hot-spots are. In my opinion, when they do deploy they (and I'm including the Army here) they leave no sufficient security infrastructure in place to maintain the peace. Remember that the Guardia was first deployed by AMLO to put a lid on migration from Central America. A role that they were designed to perform and there were holes in it.
It has been said that with AMLO giving the Army so many responsibilities that it will be difficult to roll that back.
I believe that Calderon was on the right track in standing up the Federal Police. They were FBI trained, earned a decent salary, lived in protected housing, had life insurance as well as other benefits. I believe ENP neglected it and it eventually died under AMLO. The Federal Police had extensive investigative and intelligence capabilities. I think a thousand or so is the number. It may be more. The Guardia? Only a few hundred. They are mainly a patrolling force according to some analysts (maybe Hope said this at one time).
I believe ENP won by the election over AMLO by .06%, not 6%.
Someone said the coup-planning and executing then is not in the Mexican military's DNA as compared to other Latin American militaries (this might have been Hope, but I'm not sure).
Great points friend. I agree I think the answer needs to be in police forces, although probably still a mix of local, state and federal, but it is a Hercuelan task to bring police here up to it - and so difficult when they have to deal with such heavily armed cartels. A worry now is not just the fact the National Guard aren't getting results but the longterm effects of this army-industrial complex. I agree with Hope that a coup is unlikely but they be all the time exerting influence.
(Calderon beat AMLO by the 0.6 and EPN beat him by the 6). Anyway, take care my friend and keep in touch.
Yeah, I know and his successor may be more lefty than he is. Not that I have anything against lefties (I'm not a Trumper), but this is not what MX needs. AMLO is taking MX backwards.
"Doctrine" (in US mil terms) implies that there was serious analysis applied to the problem and expected outcomes; maybe even with milestones attached that are closely monitored. It takes years to apply. I don't see this here.
Great article! Cheers.
Thanks much and all best there Peter.
Been a fan of Ioan's books for a few years now and just discovered and subscribed to this Substack. I had high expectations and still came out impressed.
This is hands-down the best article I've read about amlo's security policy. Comprehensive, nonpartisan, thorough, direct.
It's been fascinating to me seeing the shift in amlo's doctrine, it seems like what started as "Abrazos, no balazos" turned into "abrazos, a veces balazos" and is now in the "abrazos, también balazos" phase.
I think any serious attempt at combating the narco problem must be two-pronged: the abrazos side must ensure our youth has real chances at quality education and dignified work ie. livable wages and work/life balance. The bitter balazos aspect should be a strong military deterrence policy aimed at keeping the population safe from extortion, human trafficking, and collateral damage from cartel in-fighting.
While our military is far from perfect and certainly not immune to corruption, I believe it is our most solid gov't institution and currently the best tool for the job (im talking about both SEDENA and SEMAR). In online circles, this is a controversial opinion, but as the article says, most people are in favor of military prescence in our streets.
Cheers and good day, everybody.
Thanks so much there OriginalFlamingo and great points. I think the abrazos side needs to be very focused programs - let's hope Claudia Sheinbaum might realize that. The balazos side could perhaps focus first on trying to draw lines on cartel activity, ie - keeping them out of the main highways, city centers, kidnappings, and then going from there. There will be a lot to talk about in 2024. In the meantime, have a great new year friend.
The sign that showed me ALMO is clueless is that he wanted to model a unit after “UN Peacekeeping Troops.” Does he have any idea how ineffective and useless they are? The sign that made me question if he is corrupt is his demands that were made to have Cienfuegos released. Solid work as always Ioan.
Thanks much and great to see you here Bobby. Stay in touch and best there.
Thanks Ioan. I look forward to the day when Mexico has a brighter future and you teach this important history as a Professor in a Mexico City University.
PS again: By calling it "doctrine" you are suggesting that there is one and dressing it up more that it deserves. I don't think that is the case. AMLO is adjusting to the situation as he goes along.
Thanks again. Yes, on making it all federal control, I used to think that might be the solution but now I thinl Mexico is perhaps too big and unwieldy for it. I think probably a mix is needed but I may be wrong.
Amlo must be stoped, because is dangerous. whit the pact whit cartel drugs and insecurity, for example in Zacatecas México, that city is example of crime, a beautifull city but in dangerous, is What mexicans will live in rest of country
Thanks much for the comment Antonio. Yes, it is especially tragic what is happening in Zacatecas - what an extreme murder rate. I hope to do some more reporting from there soon. Best and keep in touch.
Wow! ! You've written a whopper of an article here. I should have taken notes while I was reading it, but I didn't realize how long it is and just kept reading. My comments are random and not organized in any way like going from the most important to the least. So here we go:
Alejandro Hope has said in other fora that the Guardia is not deployed where the hot-spots are. In my opinion, when they do deploy they (and I'm including the Army here) they leave no sufficient security infrastructure in place to maintain the peace. Remember that the Guardia was first deployed by AMLO to put a lid on migration from Central America. A role that they were designed to perform and there were holes in it.
It has been said that with AMLO giving the Army so many responsibilities that it will be difficult to roll that back.
I believe that Calderon was on the right track in standing up the Federal Police. They were FBI trained, earned a decent salary, lived in protected housing, had life insurance as well as other benefits. I believe ENP neglected it and it eventually died under AMLO. The Federal Police had extensive investigative and intelligence capabilities. I think a thousand or so is the number. It may be more. The Guardia? Only a few hundred. They are mainly a patrolling force according to some analysts (maybe Hope said this at one time).
I believe ENP won by the election over AMLO by .06%, not 6%.
Someone said the coup-planning and executing then is not in the Mexican military's DNA as compared to other Latin American militaries (this might have been Hope, but I'm not sure).
Great points friend. I agree I think the answer needs to be in police forces, although probably still a mix of local, state and federal, but it is a Hercuelan task to bring police here up to it - and so difficult when they have to deal with such heavily armed cartels. A worry now is not just the fact the National Guard aren't getting results but the longterm effects of this army-industrial complex. I agree with Hope that a coup is unlikely but they be all the time exerting influence.
(Calderon beat AMLO by the 0.6 and EPN beat him by the 6). Anyway, take care my friend and keep in touch.
PS to my second comment. Make it a federal police force across the board like Colombia. I know the MX Guvs won't like that.
And on the issue of doctrine - yes I agree it is improvised but there also is a certain formula, that his successor may follow. All best there Jeff!
Yeah, I know and his successor may be more lefty than he is. Not that I have anything against lefties (I'm not a Trumper), but this is not what MX needs. AMLO is taking MX backwards.
Ha ha. Sounds good.
"Doctrine" (in US mil terms) implies that there was serious analysis applied to the problem and expected outcomes; maybe even with milestones attached that are closely monitored. It takes years to apply. I don't see this here.