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In March 1916, General John “Black Jack” Pershing led thousands of American soldiers over the Rio Grande into Mexico to hunt down the bandit-turned revolutionary Pancho Villa. The “Mexican Punitive Expedition” was a direct response to Villa raiding Columbus, New Mexico, and killing about 17 Americans (the count varies) while Villa’s forces took many more casualties. But Washington had been on alert to Mexican violence for months, with revolutionary irregulars slaying Americans in Chihuahua.
U.S. forces swelled in strength and pushed deep into Mexico, killing more than 200 revolutionary troops, while losing over 60 soldiers. Yet they failed to capture Villa, who retreated into the Sierra Madre mountains and enjoyed local protection. Curiously, however, then Secretary of War Newton Baker claimed the mission as a success. “It’s real purpose was a display of the power of the United States into a country disturbed beyond control,” he said.
It might seem hyperbolic to greet the second coming to power of Donald Trump today with a description of the last major U.S. military incursion into Mexico a century ago. But the prospect of U.S. soldiers engaging in direct confrontation with cartels on Mexican soil is now a real possibility.
Trump has repeated the threat time after time. As he said in a 2023 video message: “I will deploy all necessary military assets…When I'm back in the White House, the drug kingpins and vicious traffickers will never sleep soundly again.” Fellow Republicans have made similar statements including Rep. Dan Crenshaw who told me: “You need something that says, ‘You have finally pissed off the gringos.’ ”
There is debate about how to treat Trump’s rhetoric and it can be tricky to judge when he is bluffing. But he said in his inauguration speech that he will designate Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. There is still a pending bill in Congress, introduced by Crenshaw, for an “Authorization of Military Force” against cartels. And Trump has said he will select Colonel Ronald Johnson (below), a veteran of the airborne special forces and CIA as the new U.S. ambassador to Mexico.
Fears over the U.S. southern border were key to Trump’s electoral success in November and to the whole identity of the MAGA movement that propelled him to power. The issues of immigrants and drugs are different and most fentanyl causing the catastrophic levels of overdoses is trafficked through the official ports of entry. Yet cartels are involved in both human and drug smuggling and tough action against them could be seen by Trump as a way to score an early political victory.
Here I break down what the real scenarios for U.S. military action against cartels are and what the consequences could be. It might not go bad. Trump exerting more pressure, or threats, could lead to Mexico reducing the flow of fentanyl north. Or there is a prospect of more cooperation between the two countries in the fight. But there is a real possibility for U.S. strikes to cause an escalation of violence and conflict with Mexico yet not solve the fundamental problems.
A central factor is that while the United States has the most powerful military on the planet, it cannot simply take out cartels with a few raids. Cartels are sprawling networks with look-outs, gunmen, smugglers, businessmen and accountants, as well as cops, soldiers, and politicians on the payroll. A study published in Science found they were one of the biggest employers in Mexico with up to 185,000 members and I think that is an underestimate. Even if commandos were to wipe out a thousand cartel thugs then more than ninety-nine percent would still be standing.
However, the Trump White House may not be making such a calculus to measure success but see the action as being worthwhile in itself. The logic of the secretary of war a century ago on the chase for Villa could be applied here: “Its real purpose [is] a display of the power of the United States into a country disturbed beyond control.”
What effect will the terrorist designation have?
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